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US Dollar Snaps Losing Streak, May Extend Gains on ISM Data

US Dollar Snaps Losing Streak, May Extend Gains on ISM Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar corrected lower overnight after snapping losing streak
  • Mnuchin appointment, OPEC deal, ADP data fueled reflation bets
  • Strong ISM manufacturing survey may boost Fed rate hike outlook

The US Dollar corrected broadly lower in overnight trade after snapping a four-day losing streak yesterday, as expected. The benchmark currency found support the return of “Trump trade” dynamics, an OPEC production cut agreement and upbeat economic data encouraged another swell in Fed rate hike speculation.

The appointment of Steve Mnuchin to Treasury secretary seemed to boost hopes that the seasoned financier will ably implement President-elect Trump’s reflationary policies, upbeat ADP data hinted the economy may be running hotter even before a fiscal boost and the prospect of higher oil prices bolstered price growth bets.

The greenback may continue to recover if November’s ISM manufacturing survey continues the recent run of upbeat US economic news-flow. Economists expect a print at 52.5, putting the pace of factory-sector activity growth at the highest in four months.

UK manufacturing PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. A pickup is expected but the release seems unlikely to be a potent driver for the British Pound considering its limited implications for the near-term trajectory of Bank of England monetary policy.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q)

-1.8%

0.0%

-2.5%

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (NOV)

54.2

-

50.9

23:00

AUD

CoreLogic House Px (MoM) (NOV)

0.2%

-

0.5%

23:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (NOV)

12.4%

-

12.7%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (YoY) (3Q)

-1.3%

-0.4%

3.1%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending Ex Software (3Q)

-1.4%

-0.6%

3.1%

23:50

JPY

Company Profits (3Q)

11.5%

-

-10.0%

23:50

JPY

Company Sales (3Q)

-1.5%

-

-3.5%

0:30

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (NOV F)

51.3

-

51.1

0:30

AUD

Private Capital Expenditure (3Q)

-4.0%

-3.0%

-5.2%

1:00

CNY

Mfg PMI (NOV)

51.7

51

51.2

1:00

CNY

Non-Mfg PMI (NOV)

54.7

-

54

1:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Mfg (NOV)

50.9

51

51.2

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (NOV)

13.9%

-

0.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

GBP

Nationwide House Px (MoM) (NOV)

0.1% (A)

0.0%

Medium

7:00

GBP

Nationwide House Px NSA (YoY) (NOV)

4.4% (A)

4.6%

Medium

8:15

CHF

Retail Sales Real (YoY) (OCT)

-0.5% (A)

-2.1%

Low

8:30

CHF

PMI Mfg (NOV)

56.6 (A)

54.7

Medium

8:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (NOV)

52.2 (A)

50.9

Low

8:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (NOV F)

51.7 (A)

51.5

Low

8:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (NOV F)

54.3 (A)

54.4

Medium

9:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (NOV F)

53.7 (A)

53.7

Medium

9:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (NOV)

54.4

54.3

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (OCT)

-

10.0%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Italy GDP WDA (QoQ) (3Q F)

-

0.3%

Low

10:00

EUR

Italy GDP WDA (YoY) (3Q F)

-

0.9%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0375

1.0489

1.0539

1.0603

1.0653

1.0717

1.0831

GBP/USD

1.2277

1.238

1.2443

1.2483

1.2546

1.2586

1.2689

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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