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US Dollar May Rise on Data But OPEC, Cabinet News Cloud Outlook

US Dollar May Rise on Data But OPEC, Cabinet News Cloud Outlook

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen falls as risk appetite firms, NZ Dollar gains on RBNZ comments
  • Aussie Dollar drops as ANZ CEO sounds the alarm about economy
  • US Dollar may rise on data but OPEC, cabinet news cloud outlook

The Yen underperformed as Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index advanced, sapping demand for the anti-risk currency. The New Zealand Dollar advanced alongside S&P 500 futures, hinting at firming risk appetite as the driver behind gains. Encouraging comments from RBNZ officials may have also helped after Governor Wheeler and Deputy Governor Spencer seemed to talk down near-term rate cut chances.

The Australian Dollar failed to capitalize however, dropping alongside the local S&P/ASX 200 equities benchmark. Australian government bonds declined in tandem, pointing to a broader deterioration in demand for AUD-denominated assets as the reason for Aussie selling. ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott said “there are emerging signs of stress” in the economy, which may have triggered the rout.

Looking ahead, the US Dollar may find scope for gains after four days of losses. The expected Fed rate hike path may steepen further if the central bank’s favored PCE inflation gauge and the ADP estimate of jobs growth yield upbeat results, extending a recent run of upbeat US economic news-flow.

Headline risk remains elevated however. The likely response to confirmation or denial of rumors predicting the imminent naming of Steve Mnuchin as incoming US Treasury secretary is unclear for now. The market-wide implications of OPEC output cut deal negotiations are likewise clouded.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT P)

0.1%

0.0%

0.6%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT P)

-1.3%

-1.3%

1.5%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (NOV)

37.6

-

38.4

0:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (NOV)

20.5

-

24.5

0:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (NOV)

-8

-4

-3

0:01

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (NOV)

32

-

37

0:10

NZD

RBNZ's Wheeler at Parliament Select Committee

-

-

-

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (OCT)

-12.6%

2.0%

-9.3%

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (OCT)

-24.9%

-6.2%

-6.8%

0:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (OCT)

0.5%

0.4%

0.4%

0:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (OCT)

5.3%

5.2%

5.4%

1:45

CNY

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (NOV)

114.9

-

117.1

2:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (OCT)

7.1%

-

4.8%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (OCT)

-3.9%

-

1.4%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (OCT)

13.7%

11.0%

10.0%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (OCT)

0.983m

0.964m

0.984m

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (OCT)

15.2%

-

16.30%

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (NOV)

48.3

48.0

48.3

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

Germany Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)

1.0%

-1.4%

Medium

7:00

EUR

Germany Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)

1.0%

0.4%

Medium

7:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (OCT)

1.55

1.59

Low

7:00

GBP

Carney Publishes BOE Financial Stability Report

-

-

Medium

8:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (NOV)

104

104.7

Low

8:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (000's) (NOV)

-5k

-13k

Medium

8:55

EUR

German Unemployment Claims Rate SA (NOV)

6.0%

6.0%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (NOV)

0.6%

0.5%

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (NOV A)

0.8%

0.8%

High

12:30

EUR

ECB's Mario Draghi Speaks in Madrid

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0445

1.0534

1.0592

1.0623

1.0681

1.0712

1.0801

GBP/USD

1.2195

1.2332

1.2413

1.2469

1.2550

1.2606

1.2743

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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