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Currency Markets May Stall as Investors Brace for US Jobs Data

Currency Markets May Stall as Investors Brace for US Jobs Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Japanese Yen corrects higher after dropping to monthly low vs. majors
  • Australian Dollar drops as RBA rate cut speculation cautiously rebuilds
  • Markets may stall before US jobs data but Deutsche Bank risk remains

The Japanese Yen corrected broadly higher overnight in a move that looked corrective after the currency slid against all of its major counterparts for a second consecutive day, hitting the lowest level in a month. The Australian Dollar faced selling pressure, with prices tracking to front-end bond yields downward to suggest that returning RBA rate cut bets may have been behind the selloff. The priced-in probability of a cut at next month’s meeting is now 18 percent.

Looking ahead, a lull in high-profile European and US event risk may translate into a quiet, consolidative period in the near term as brace for the release of September’s US Employment report on Friday. A payrolls gain of 170k is expected, marking slight acceleration from the 151k increase in August. The on-going fiasco centered on German lender Deutsche Bank has proven to be a potent driver of risk appetite and may fuel knee-jerk volatility if an eye-catching headline crosses the wires. Rumors of a reduced settlement payout emerged earlier in the week, with CEO John Cryan reportedly due in the US to finalize negotiations.

Losing money trading in the FX market? This might be why.

Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
21:00NZDANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (SEP)-1.4%-6.8%
00:30AUDTrade Balance (AUG)-2010m-2300m-2410m

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXPPREVIMPACT
06:00EURFactory Orders (MoM) (AUG)0.3%0.2%Medium
06:00EURFactory Orders (YoY) (AUG)1.6%-0.7%Medium
07:15CHFCPI (MoM) (SEP)0.2%-0.1%Medium
07:15CHFCPI (YoY) (SEP)0.0%-0.1%Medium
07:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (SEP)0.3%0.0%Low
07:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (SEP)0.0%0.0%Low
07:30EURMarkit Germany Construction PMI (SEP)-51.6Low
08:10EURMarkit Germany Retail PMI (SEP)-54.1Low
08:10EURMarkit Eurozone Retail PMI (SEP)-51.0Medium
08:10EURMarkit France Retail PMI (SEP)-53.0Low
08:10EURMarkit Italy Retail PMI (SEP)-43.2Low
08:30GBPUnit Labor Costs (YoY) (2Q)-1.9%Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EUR/USD1.11231.11661.11861.12091.12291.12521.1295
GBP/USD1.25651.26501.27001.27351.27851.28201.2905

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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