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Currency Markets May Stall as Investors Brace for US Jobs Data

Currency Markets May Stall as Investors Brace for US Jobs Data

2016-10-06 03:24:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Japanese Yen corrects higher after dropping to monthly low vs. majors
  • Australian Dollar drops as RBA rate cut speculation cautiously rebuilds
  • Markets may stall before US jobs data but Deutsche Bank risk remains

The Japanese Yen corrected broadly higher overnight in a move that looked corrective after the currency slid against all of its major counterparts for a second consecutive day, hitting the lowest level in a month. The Australian Dollar faced selling pressure, with prices tracking to front-end bond yields downward to suggest that returning RBA rate cut bets may have been behind the selloff. The priced-in probability of a cut at next month’s meeting is now 18 percent.

Looking ahead, a lull in high-profile European and US event risk may translate into a quiet, consolidative period in the near term as brace for the release of September’s US Employment report on Friday. A payrolls gain of 170k is expected, marking slight acceleration from the 151k increase in August. The on-going fiasco centered on German lender Deutsche Bank has proven to be a potent driver of risk appetite and may fuel knee-jerk volatility if an eye-catching headline crosses the wires. Rumors of a reduced settlement payout emerged earlier in the week, with CEO John Cryan reportedly due in the US to finalize negotiations.

Losing money trading in the FX market? This might be why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (SEP)

-1.4%

-

6.8%

00:30

AUD

Trade Balance (AUG)

-2010m

-2300m

-2410m

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

Factory Orders (MoM) (AUG)

0.3%

0.2%

Medium

06:00

EUR

Factory Orders (YoY) (AUG)

1.6%

-0.7%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (SEP)

0.2%

-0.1%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (SEP)

0.0%

-0.1%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (SEP)

0.3%

0.0%

Low

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (SEP)

0.0%

0.0%

Low

07:30

EUR

Markit Germany Construction PMI (SEP)

-

51.6

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit Germany Retail PMI (SEP)

-

54.1

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (SEP)

-

51.0

Medium

08:10

EUR

Markit France Retail PMI (SEP)

-

53.0

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit Italy Retail PMI (SEP)

-

43.2

Low

08:30

GBP

Unit Labor Costs (YoY) (2Q)

-

1.9%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1123

1.1166

1.1186

1.1209

1.1229

1.1252

1.1295

GBP/USD

1.2565

1.2650

1.2700

1.2735

1.2785

1.2820

1.2905

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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