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Pound Drops as Brexit Timeline Emerges, US Dollar Eyes ISM Data

Pound Drops as Brexit Timeline Emerges, US Dollar Eyes ISM Data

2016-10-03 01:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound declines as UK PM May establishes Brexit processtimeline
  • Aussie, NZ Dollars retrace after Deutsche Bank inspired gains on Friday
  • US Dollar may rise if supportive ISM data boosts Fed rate hike outlook

The British Pound declined gapped lower at the open of the trading week after UK Prime Minister Theresa May pledged to get on with making Brexit a reality, pledging to trigger Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by the end of the first quarter of 2017. Doing so will formally begin a two-year debate on the severing of the existing UK/EU relationship and the establishment of a new one.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars likewise declined in a move that seemed corrective following Friday’s strong advance. That move tracked a broad-based recovery in risk appetite after Agence France-Presse reported that Deutsche Bank (DB) is close to settlement on a $5.4 billion fine with the US Department of Justice (DOJ), a far more manageable sum than the $14 billion initially demanded by regulators.

Deutsche-related news flow may remain in the spotlight as CEO John Cryan travels to the US to finalize negotiations. September’s ISM Manufacturing survey takes top billing on the data docket, with consensus forecasts suggesting the US factory sector returned to growth last month after an unexpected contraction in August. An upbeat result that bolsters Fed rate hike speculation may broadly boost the US Dollar.

Losing money trading in the FX market?This might be why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (SEP)

49.8

-

46.9

23:00

AUD

CoreLogic House Px (MoM) (SEP)

1.0%

-

1.1%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (AUG)

2.11%

-

2.25%

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Mfg Index (3Q)

6

7

6

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Mfg Outlook (3Q)

6

8

6

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index (3Q)

18

18

19

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook (3Q)

16

18

17

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large All Industry Capex (3Q)

6.3%

6.5%

6.2%

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Mfg Index (3Q)

-5

-5

-5

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Mfg Outlook (3Q)

-6

-6

-7

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index (3Q)

0

0

0

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook (3Q)

-2

-2

-4

00:00

AUD

Melbourne Institute Inflation (MoM) (SEP)

-

-

0.2%

00:00

AUD

Melbourne Institute Inflation (YoY) (SEP)

-

-

1.2%

00:30

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (SEP F )

-

-

50.3

05:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (SEP)

-

-

5.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:15

CHF

Retail Sales Real (YoY) (AUG)

-1.7%

-2.2%

07:30

CHF

PMI Mfg (SEP)

51.8

51

07:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (SEP F)

49.5

49.5

07:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (SEP F)

54.3

54.3

08:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (SEP 30)

-

517.2b

08:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (SEP 30)

-

444.6b

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (SEP)

52.6

52.6

08:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (SEP)

52.1

53.3

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1017

1.1115

1.1175

1.1213

1.1273

1.1311

1.1409

GBP/USD

1.2805

1.2891

1.2932

1.2977

1.3018

1.3063

1.3149

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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