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US Dollar, Yen Surge as Market Mood Sours into the Weekend

US Dollar, Yen Surge as Market Mood Sours into the Weekend

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Risk aversion has gripped financial markets in the final hours of the trading week. The US Dollar is enjoying broad-based support from haven demand and the anti-risk Japanese Yen is likewise on the upswing. The sentiment-linked commodity bloc currencies bore the brunt of selling pressure, sinking alongside stock prices, with the Australian Dollar standing out as the weakest of the bunch.

A singular catalyst for the move does not prominently stand out, although ominous comments from ONS Chief Economist Joe Grice may have played a part in setting the tone. The head of the UK’s statistics office warned that it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the health of the economy in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, pouring cold water on optimism driven by a recent run of upbeat news-flow.

A relatively quiet economic calendar from here presents few barriers for established momentum to carry forward, pointing to a risk-off mood ahead. S&P 500 futures are pointing sharply lower, bolstering the case for follow-through. Volumes are noticeably thin however, lowering barriers to seesaw volatility.

Losing money trading in the FX market? This might be why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Net Migration SA (JUL)

5600

-

5670

00:00

USD

Fed's Kaplan to Speak in Dallas

-

-

-

03:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (MoM) (JUL)

2.3%

-

-0.9%

03:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JUL)

5.6%

-

4.1%

04:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUN)

1.0%

0.9%

-1.3%

05:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (JUL)

-0.1%

-

-3.5%

05:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JUL)

0.6%

-

-3.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German PPI (MoM) (JUL)

0.2% (A)

0.4%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German PPI (YoY) (JUL)

-2.0% (A)

-2.2%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (JUL)

-2.1b (A)

13.5b

Low

08:30

GBP

Central Government NCR (JUL)

3.6b (A)

20.0b

Low

08:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (JUL)

-1.5b (A)

7.5b

Low

08:30

GBP

PSNB ex Banking Groups (JUL)

-1.0b (A)

8.0b

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1175

1.1255

1.1305

1.1335

1.1385

1.1415

1.1495

GBPUSD

1.2854

1.2990

1.3079

1.3126

1.3215

1.3262

1.3398

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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