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Currencies Consolidate After RBNZ Triggers Big-Splash Volatility

Currencies Consolidate After RBNZ Triggers Big-Splash Volatility

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • New Zealand Dollar soars despite RBNZ interest rate cut
  • Most major currencies treading water in overnight trade
  • Lull in high profile event risk to make for consolidate tone

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade following the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. The central bank cut the benchmark cash rate to 2 percent, as widely predicted. As discussed previously, this put the focus on the statement accompanying the rate decision. On this front, the markets judged the central bank to be less dovish than expected.

The RBNZ said the annual inflation rate will begin recovering in the fourth quarter. Evidence on this front will not be available until early 2017, meaning the central bank may wait at least until then to reassess the need for further easing.

Officials also said buoyant house prices continue to pose financial stability risks and promised to seek advice on stronger macro-prudential measures to rein in activity. Besides the time needed to move through consultation and on to policy implementation, Governor Graeme Wheeler and company will probably want a further wait-and-see period to see if the new scheme works before topping up stimulus.

Looking ahead, another quiet day on the European and US economic calendars seems likely to make for a consolidative tone. The lull in top-tier news flow could make for atypically high sensitivity to headline risk however, increasing the near-term potential threat from seesaw volatility.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Official Cash Rate (AUG 11)

2.00%

2.00%

2.25%

22:45

NZD

Food Prices MoM (JUL)

-0.2%

-

0.4%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (JUL)

5%

6%

15%

01:00

AUD

Consumer Inflation Expectation (AUG)

3.5%

-

3.7%

01:10

NZD

RBNZ's Wheeler at Parliament Select Committee

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:45

EUR

France CPI (MoM) (JUL F)

-0.4%

-0.4%

Low

06:45

EUR

France CPI (MoM) (JUL F)

0.2%

0.2%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1006

1.1083

1.1129

1.1160

1.1206

1.1237

1.1314

GBP/USD

1.2826

1.2929

1.2969

1.3032

1.3072

1.3135

1.3238

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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