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Will the US Dollar Rise if Jobs Data Tops Forecasts? Maybe Not.

Will the US Dollar Rise if Jobs Data Tops Forecasts? Maybe Not.

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar may fall in risk-on trade if payrolls print saps haven demand
  • Yen to fall as commodity currencies rise on upbeat US employment data
  • NZ Dollar gains on ebbing RBNZ rate cut bets, Aussie Dollar rebounds

All eyes are on June’s US jobs report in the final hours of the trading week. The economy is expected to have added 180k jobs. Besides the headline figure, traders will be keen to see if May’s abysmal payrolls number is revised and if the growth rate in average hourly earnings rises as expected. At 38k, the last jobs growth number marked a dramatic deviation from trend averages in the triple digits. On the wage inflation front, a reading of 2.7 percent year-on-year is expected to deliver the fastest wage inflation in seven years.

US economic news-flow has broadly improved relative to consensus forecasts since mid-May (disappointing labor-market data notwithstanding). This hints that analysts’ models may be underestimating the overall health of the economy and opens the door for an upside surprise. Such an outcome may feed hopes that strong US performance could be a potent countervailing force to malaise in Europe following the “Brexit” referendum, boosting risk appetite.

The sentiment-linked Aussie, Kiwi and Canadian Dollars may rise alongside stock prices in a risk-on environment. Meanwhile, the anti-risk Japanese Yen may face selling pressure. The fate of the US Dollar could be most curious of all however. Priced-in Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations suggest the central bank will not raise rates again until 2018. Strong jobs data not materially change this in the near term because investors’ dovish view is mostly inspired by fears of external headwinds. This may mean that sentiment-oriented trading dynamics predominate, with the greenback falling amid ebbing safe-haven demand.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, with prices continuing to rise alongside front-end bond yields as interest rate cut bets continued to fade. The move follows yesterday’s comments from RBNZ Deputy Governor Grant Spencer, who said that further easing “could pose financial stability risk”. The Australian Dollar corrected upward having lagged the G10 FX majors yesterday after Standard & Poor’s downgraded its outlook for Australia’s credit rating from “stable” to “negative”.

Where is the US Dollar expected to go in the third quarter? See our forecast here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:05

GBP

GfK Post-Brexit UK Consumer Confidence

-9

-

-1

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Balance (MAY)

¥1809.1b

¥1751.2b

¥1878.5b

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Adjusted (MAY)

¥1414.5b

¥1515.4b

¥1625.8b

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance BoP Basis (MAY)

¥39.9b

¥56.0b

¥697.1b

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Incl Trusts (YoY) (JUN)

2.0%

-

2.2%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Ex-Trusts (YoY) (JUN)

2.0%

2.2%

2.2%

00:00

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY)

-0.2%

0.5%

0.0%

00:00

JPY

Real Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY)

0.2%

-

0.4%

04:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUN)

-

-7.32%

05:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Current (JUN)

43.1

43

05:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (JUN)

46.7

47.3

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (JUN)

3.3%

3.3%

Medium

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate SA (JUN)

3.5%

3.5%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (MAY)

23.5b

25.6b

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Current Account Balance (MAY)

24.6b

28.8b

Low

06:00

EUR

German Exports SA (MoM) (MAY)

0.4%

0.0%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Imports SA (MoM) (MAY)

0.7%

-0.2%

Low

08:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£/Mn) (MAY)

-10700

-10526

Medium

08:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£/Mn) (MAY)

-2800

-2602

Medium

08:30

GBP

Trade Balance (£/Mn) (MAY)

-3575

-3294

Medium

08:30

GBP

Unit Labor Costs (YoY) (1Q)

1.6%

1.3%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0966

1.1020

1.1042

1.1074

1.1096

1.1128

1.1182

GBPUSD

1.2604

1.2774

1.2841

1.2944

1.3011

1.3114

1.3284

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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