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US Dollar May Rise Alongside Yen as Risk Aversion Builds Anew

US Dollar May Rise Alongside Yen as Risk Aversion Builds Anew

2016-07-01 07:20:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Yen looks past Asian shares advance, drops alongside S&P 500 futures
  • FX markets likely to look past UK and Eurozone PMIs, US ISM surveys
  • US Dollar may find building support as risk aversion gains momentum

The anti-risk Japanese Yen advanced despite continued recovery on Asian stock exchanges, tracking S&P 500 futures downward. This suggested overnight strength in the equities space may have amounted to little more than catch-up momentum after a third consecutive day of gains on Wall Street. Meanwhile, FX markets appeared to look ahead alongside US index futures, where the bias appeared to swing back toward the risk-off side of the spectrum.

UK and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours and the analogous US ISM Manufacturing survey enters the spotlight later in the day. None of these outcomes are likely to generate a meaningful response from investors however because they are unlikely to reflect the impact of post-Brexit vote uncertainty on sector activity trends.

With that in mind, broad-based risk appetite trends are likely retain control over price action. US index futures continue to point lower and the Yen is building upward momentum as Europe comes online. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield has fallen to a record low. This seems to point toward continued risk aversion into the end of the trading week. Besides the Japanese unit, such a scenario is likely to prove supportive for the US Dollar.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (JUN)

51.8

-

51

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (MAY)

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (MAY)

1.36

1.35

1.34

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (MAY)

-1.1%

-1.1%

-0.4%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI (YoY) (MAY)

-0.4%

-0.5%

-0.3%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY)

-0.4%

-0.4%

-0.3%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY)

0.6%

0.6%

0.7%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JUN)

-0.5%

-0.4%

-0.5%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN)

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.5%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN)

0.4%

0.4%

0.5%

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Mfg Index (2Q)

6

4

6

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Mfg Outlook (2Q)

6

3

3

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index (2Q)

19

19

22

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook (2Q)

17

17

17

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large All Industry Capex (2Q)

6.2%

5.3%

-0.9%

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Mfg Index (2Q)

-5

-6

-4

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Mfg Outlook (2Q)

-7

-8

-6

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index (2Q)

0

1

4

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook (2Q)

-4

-2

-3

00:00

AUD

CoreLogic House Px MoM (JUN)

0.5%

-

1.6%

01:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (JUN)

50

50

50.1

01:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (JUN)

53.7

-

53.1

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Mfg (JUN)

48.6

49.2

49.2

02:00

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (JUN F)

48.1

-

47.8

05:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUN)

3.0%

-

6.6%

05:00

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY)

0.8%

0.8%

0.9%

05:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence Index (JUN)

41.8

41.1

40.9

06:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (JUN)

89.7

-

90.3

06:30

AUD

Commodity Index (YoY) (JUN)

9.9%

-

-10.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

07:15

CHF

Retail Sales Real (YoY) (MAY)

-1.6% (A)

-2.2%

Low

07:15

EUR

ECB’s Coeure Speaks in Paris

-

-

Low

07:30

CHF

PMI Mfg (JUN)

55.3

55.8

Low

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (JUN)

52.4

52.4

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (JUN F)

47.9

47.9

Low

07:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (JUN F)

54.4

54.4

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (JUN F)

52.6

52.6

Medium

08:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (JUN)

50.1

50.1

Medium

09:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate (MAY)

10.1%

10.2%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0833

1.0964

1.1035

1.1095

1.1166

1.1226

1.1357

GBPUSD

1.2758

1.3048

1.3179

1.3338

1.3469

1.3628

1.3918

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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