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  • 🇩🇪 GfK Consumer Confidence (FEB) Actual: -15.6 Expected: -7.9 Previous: -7.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
  • 🇩🇪 GfK Consumer Confidence (FEB) Actual: -15.6 Expected: -7.9 Previous: -7.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
  • The US unemployment rate stood at 6.77% in Dec, which marks a long way to return to the pre-Covid level of 3.8%. The latest core PCE was at 1.4%, showing little sign of inflation overheating. This suggests that conditions for the Fed to consider tapering are far from met. #FOMC https://t.co/vtnC2V1Q2P
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 GfK Consumer Confidence (FEB) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -7.9 Previous: -7.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
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  • Outside of GameStop and other activist driven stocks, risk markets seem to be struggling for direction. Maybe the Dow and EURUSD will draw direction from the growth forecasts, the FOMC rate decision and key earnings (like TSLA and AAPL). My analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/01/27/Dow-and-Dollar-Steel-for-FOMC-Top-Earnings-and-Growth-Fight-Against-Speculative-Control.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/SqdH9JM6Pu
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  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.02% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.14% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.16% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/NjQp5LYv2X
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Yen Gains as Stocks Retreat, NZ Dollar Gains on RBNZ FSR Report

Yen Gains as Stocks Retreat, NZ Dollar Gains on RBNZ FSR Report

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen gains, Aussie Dollar slumps as risk aversion returns overnight
  • NZ Dollar gains as RBNZ opts against setting the stage for rate cuts
  • Risk-off dynamics seen ahead as markets eye BOE Inflation Report

The anti-risk Japanese Yen traded higher while the sentiment-anchored Australian Dollar declined as stocks declined in overnight trade. The New Zealand Dollar diverged from broader trends in market mood for a second day, rising following the release of the RBNZ Financial Stability Report and subsequent commentary from Governor Graeme Wheeler.

The central bank signaled its concern about runway housing prices in Auckland and said it was seriously considering further macro-prudential measures to cool conditions, but pointedly opted against unveiling anything actionable (including a clear-cut timeline for future policy). This sent the Kiwi higher as markets unwound bets on an imminent policy response that would open the door for further RBNZ interest rate cuts stoked by yesterday’s comments from Finance Minister Bill English.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic data docket is likely to keep risk appetite trends at the forefront. S&P 500 futures are pointing meaningfully lower, hinting at a corrective decline after yesterday’s session produced the largest daily gain in a month. The deliberative tone may be reinforced by traders’ hesitation to commit to a firm directional bias ahead of critical event risk posted by the upcoming release of the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report. Traders will comb through the document for clues about officials’ views on the likely impact of the much-anticipated Brexit referendum due next month.

Should you follow FXCM traders’ positioning on the major currencies? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Publishes Financial Stability Report (FSR)

--

--

--

23:00

NZD

RBNZ's Wheeler News Conference on FSR

--

--

--

23:27

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (APR)

18.4%

--

8.2%

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets ($) (APR)

1262.5b

--

1262.1b

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf Index (MAY)

103.2

--

95.1

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf SA (MoM) (MAY)

8.5%

--

-4.0%

1:10

NZD

RBNZ's Wheeler at Parliament Committee on FSR

--

--

--

1:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) (MAR)

-0.9%

-1.5%

0.9%

1:30

AUD

Investment Lending (MAR)

1.5%

--

3.1%

1:30

AUD

Owner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (MAR)

-1.2%

--

1.7%

5:00

JPY

Leading Index CI (MAR P)

98.4

96.3

96.8

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (MAR P)

111.2

111.2

110.7

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)

0.3% (A)

-0.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)

-0.2% (A)

-0.5%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAR)

0.1% (A)

-1.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAR)

-1.9% (A)

-1.8%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1278

1.1329

1.1351

1.1380

1.1402

1.1431

1.1482

GBP/USD

1.4258

1.4347

1.4395

1.4436

1.4484

1.4525

1.4614

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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