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  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.23% FTSE 100: 0.20% France 40: 0.18% US 500: -0.95% Wall Street: -1.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/0hpabRfty5
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  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.30% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.26% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.21% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Q57TKC4p2W
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -1.67% Wall Street: -1.78% France 40: -2.34% Germany 30: -2.38% FTSE 100: -2.78% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/qXVjzv7tfg
  • Fed's Mester: -Want to see more, broader progress in recovery -May end year with inflation above 2%, but falling next year -Sees upside risks to inflation forecast -Sees upward valuation pressures in equity markets -Don't see elevated market risks now, but must be attuned $SPX
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US Dollar Looks to Durables, PCE Data for a Lifeline

US Dollar Looks to Durables, PCE Data for a Lifeline

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Another relatively quiet day on the European economic data front will keep investors looking at the US docket for potential directional catalysts. November’s Durable Goods Orders figures as well as the PCE measure of inflation – the Fed’s favored price growth gauge – are due to cross the wires. The former is expected to show a 0.7 contraction, marking a slight pullback, while the latter is seen keeping the core year-on-year growth rate unchanged at 1.3 percent.

Traders will look to the outcomes to inform speculation about the likely trajectory ofFOMC interest rate hikes in 2016. The markets’ priced-in outlook envisions two rate increases in the year ahead, whereas Fed Chair Janet Yellen and company expect to issue four (according to forecasts presented at the December meeting). On balance, this may make price action more sensitive to upside surprises versus the alternative. Such results may force re-pricing to bring consensus views closer toward the Fed’s, boosting the US Dollar.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in otherwise muted overnight session after November’s Trade Balance figures showed the deficit unexpectedly narrowed to –NZ$3678 million, marking the smallest shortfall since April 2009. New Zealand’s front-end bond yields moved higher after the data crossed the wires, suggesting the supportive print weighed against RBNZ rate cut speculation. The Euro and the Swiss Franc tracked lower, trading inversely of Asian stock exchanges to hint that “risk-on” sentiment bolstered carry trades while punishing funding currencies.

Gauge Trends and Spot Reversals in the Major Currencies with DailyFX SSI

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NOV)

-779M

-810M

-905M

21:45

NZD

Exports (NOV)

4.08B

3.90B

3.81B

21:45

NZD

Imports (NOV)

4.86B

4.75B

4.72B

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (NOV)

-3678M

-3700M

-3182M

02:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (NOV)

8.4%

-

7.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:45

EUR

France GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

07:45

EUR

France GDP (YoY) (3Q F)

1.2%

1.2%

Medium

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (DEC)

98.7

97.9

Low

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)

0.5%

0.5%

Medium

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) (3Q F)

2.3%

2.3%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Current Account Balance (3Q)

-21.5B

-16.8B

Low

09:30

GBP

Unit Labor Costs (YoY) (3Q)

2.2%

2.2%

Low

09:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (QoQ) (3Q F)

2.2%

2.2%

Low

09:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (YoY) (3Q F)

-

6.6%

Low

09:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

0.4%

Low

09:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (OCT)

0.6%

0.7%

Low

09:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (DEC)

-

55.0

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0784

1.0866

1.0911

1.0948

1.0993

1.1030

1.1112

GBPUSD

1.4643

1.4745

1.4787

1.4847

1.4889

1.4949

1.5051

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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