News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.95% Gold: 0.84% Oil - US Crude: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/FPnLbC3Pxf
  • With Eurozone economic data shrugging in recent weeks, European Central Bank interest rate expectations have been creeping forward towards April 2021. Get your $EURUSD market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/vBPciSW5pH https://t.co/qubKMRFnjv
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.19%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 61.05%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/A8bc63PO79
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.04% France 40: 0.01% FTSE 100: 0.01% US 500: -0.29% Wall Street: -0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MqwdApCJ0C
  • The US Dollar is pulling back from what’s become a strong outing in the month of September. Get your $USD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/hOvSiIDFLT https://t.co/d0SEnfJT0s
  • webinar starting right now - looking at 1. themes for q3 close 2. debates starting tonight, what might market ramifications be? 3. heavy week of data out of the us - $USD in the spotlight https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/455809179 https://t.co/tZxa4c2zVl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.20%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 62.11%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/9tCHS7o18f
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Williams Speech due at 17:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-29
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.93% Gold: 0.62% Oil - US Crude: -4.59% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/674URQqbej
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.49% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.41% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.37% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.05% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.17% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/NLmATP58eY
US Dollar Looks to Durables, PCE Data for a Lifeline

US Dollar Looks to Durables, PCE Data for a Lifeline

2015-12-23 07:49:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Rise if Upbeat Durables, PCE Data Forces Fed Rate PathRe-Pricing
  • New Zealand Dollar Gains as Narrowing Trade Gap Cools RBNZ Rate Cut Speculation
  • Euro, Swiss Franc Suffer as Risk-On Sentiment Weighs on Funding Currencies in Asia

Another relatively quiet day on the European economic data front will keep investors looking at the US docket for potential directional catalysts. November’s Durable Goods Orders figures as well as the PCE measure of inflation – the Fed’s favored price growth gauge – are due to cross the wires. The former is expected to show a 0.7 contraction, marking a slight pullback, while the latter is seen keeping the core year-on-year growth rate unchanged at 1.3 percent.

Traders will look to the outcomes to inform speculation about the likely trajectory ofFOMC interest rate hikes in 2016. The markets’ priced-in outlook envisions two rate increases in the year ahead, whereas Fed Chair Janet Yellen and company expect to issue four (according to forecasts presented at the December meeting). On balance, this may make price action more sensitive to upside surprises versus the alternative. Such results may force re-pricing to bring consensus views closer toward the Fed’s, boosting the US Dollar.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in otherwise muted overnight session after November’s Trade Balance figures showed the deficit unexpectedly narrowed to –NZ$3678 million, marking the smallest shortfall since April 2009. New Zealand’s front-end bond yields moved higher after the data crossed the wires, suggesting the supportive print weighed against RBNZ rate cut speculation. The Euro and the Swiss Franc tracked lower, trading inversely of Asian stock exchanges to hint that “risk-on” sentiment bolstered carry trades while punishing funding currencies.

Gauge Trends and Spot Reversals in the Major Currencies with DailyFX SSI

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NOV)

-779M

-810M

-905M

21:45

NZD

Exports (NOV)

4.08B

3.90B

3.81B

21:45

NZD

Imports (NOV)

4.86B

4.75B

4.72B

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (NOV)

-3678M

-3700M

-3182M

02:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (NOV)

8.4%

-

7.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:45

EUR

France GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

07:45

EUR

France GDP (YoY) (3Q F)

1.2%

1.2%

Medium

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (DEC)

98.7

97.9

Low

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)

0.5%

0.5%

Medium

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) (3Q F)

2.3%

2.3%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Current Account Balance (3Q)

-21.5B

-16.8B

Low

09:30

GBP

Unit Labor Costs (YoY) (3Q)

2.2%

2.2%

Low

09:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (QoQ) (3Q F)

2.2%

2.2%

Low

09:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (YoY) (3Q F)

-

6.6%

Low

09:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

0.4%

Low

09:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (OCT)

0.6%

0.7%

Low

09:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (DEC)

-

55.0

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0784

1.0866

1.0911

1.0948

1.0993

1.1030

1.1112

GBPUSD

1.4643

1.4745

1.4787

1.4847

1.4889

1.4949

1.5051

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES