Euro May Ignore German CPI as ECB Rate Decision Looms Large

2015-11-30 06:42:00

Talking Points:

Euro May Overlook German CPI Data as ECB Rate Decision Looms Large
IMF Decision to Include Chinese Yuan into SDR to Pass with Little Fanfare
New Zealand Dollar Gains Alongside Yields on Improving RBNZ Outlook

German CPI figures headline the economic data docket in European trading hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to tick narrowly higher to 0.4 percent in November from 0.3 percent in the prior month. The outcome seems unlikely to trigger a significant response from the Euro, with traders probably unwilling to commit to a firm directional bias ahead of the much-anticipated ECB policy announcement due later in the week.

The markets are likewise waiting for confirmation that the IMF has decided to include the Chinese Yuan into its SDR basket of reserve currencies. Christine Lagarde, the Fund’s Managing Director, issued a statement supporting staff recommendation to proceed with the move last week. As we’ve discussed in detail elsewhere, the announcement is unlikely to translate into a lasting, meaningful response from the financial markets in the near term.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The currency’s advance tracked an upward push in front-end bond yields, hinting at an improvement in prevailing RBNZ monetary policy expectations as the driving catalyst. Indeed, while investors continue to price in at least one rate cut over the coming 12 months, the probability of a 25bps reduction at next month’s meeting dropped to 48 percent from 56 percent at the close of trade last week.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
21:45	NZD	Building Permits (MoM) (OCT)	5.1%	-	-5.8%
23:30	AUD	TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (NOV)	0.1%	-	0.0%
23:30	AUD	TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (NOV)	1.8%	-	1.8%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT P)	1.4%	1.8%	1.1%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT P)	-1.4%	-0.9%	-0.8%
23:50	JPY	Retail Trade (YoY) (OCT)	1.8%	0.9%	-0.1%
23:50	JPY	Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)	1.1%	0.3%	0.8%
23:50	JPY	Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales (OCT)	2.9%	3.0%	1.7%
00:00	NZD	ANZ Activity Outlook (NOV)	32.0	-	23.7
00:00	NZD	ANZ Business Confidence (NOV)	14.6	-	10.5
00:30	AUD	Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (3Q)	1.3%	1.0%	-0.5%
00:30	AUD	Inventories SA (QoQ) (3Q)	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
00:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (OCT)	0.7%	0.6%	0.7%
00:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit (YoY) (OCT)	6.7%	6.6%	6.6%
01:00	JPY	BOJ’s Kuroda Speaks in Nagoya	-	-	-
02:00	NZD	Money Supply M3 (YoY) (OCT)	7.7%	-	8.5%
04:00	JPY	Vehicle Production (YoY) (OCT)	-0.5%	-	-2.6%
05:00	JPY	Housing Starts (YoY) (OCT)	-2.5%	2.6%	2.6%
05:00	JPY	Annualized Housing Starts (OCT)	0.862M	0.908M	0.900M
05:00	JPY	Construction Orders (YoY) (OCT)	-25.2%	-	6.7%

European Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP	PREV	IMPACT
07:00	EUR	German Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)	0.4%	0.0%	Medium
07:00	EUR	German Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)	2.9%	3.4%	Medium
08:00	CHF	KOF Leading Indicator (NOV)	100.2	99.8	Low
08:00	CHF	Total Sight Deposits (NOV 27)	-	468.3B	Low
08:00	CHF	Domestic Sight Deposits (NOV 27)	-	402.7B	Low
09:30	GBP	Net Consumer Credit (OCT)	1.3B	1.3B	Low
09:30	GBP	Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (OCT)	3.4B	3.6B	Low
09:30	GBP	Mortgage Approvals (OCT)	69.9K	68.9K	Medium
09:30	GBP	M4 Money Supply (MoM) (OCT)	-	-1.0%	Low
09:30	GBP	M4 Money Supply (YoY) (OCT)	-	-0.6%	Low
09:30	GBP	M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (OCT)	3.0%	4.0%	Low
09:30	GBP	Lloyds Business Barometer (NOV)	-	50.0	Low
13:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM) (NOV P)	0.1%	0.0%	High
13:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY) (NOV P)	0.4%	0.3%	High
13:00	EUR	German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (NOV P)	0.1%	0.0%	Low
13:00	EUR	German CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (NOV P)	0.3%	0.2%	Low