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Euro May Ignore German CPI as ECB Rate Decision Looms Large

Euro May Ignore German CPI as ECB Rate Decision Looms Large

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Overlook German CPI Data as ECB Rate Decision Looms Large
  • IMF Decision to Include Chinese Yuan into SDR to Pass with Little Fanfare
  • New Zealand Dollar Gains Alongside Yields on Improving RBNZ Outlook

German CPI figures headline the economic data docket in European trading hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to tick narrowly higher to 0.4 percent in November from 0.3 percent in the prior month. The outcome seems unlikely to trigger a significant response from the Euro, with traders probably unwilling to commit to a firm directional bias ahead of the much-anticipated ECB policy announcement due later in the week.

The markets are likewise waiting for confirmation that the IMF has decided to include the Chinese Yuan into its SDR basket of reserve currencies. Christine Lagarde, the Fund’s Managing Director, issued a statement supporting staff recommendation to proceed with the move last week. As we’ve discussed in detail elsewhere, the announcement is unlikely to translate into a lasting, meaningful response from the financial markets in the near term.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The currency’s advance tracked an upward push in front-end bond yields, hinting at an improvement in prevailing RBNZ monetary policy expectations as the driving catalyst. Indeed, while investors continue to price in at least one rate cut over the coming 12 months, the probability of a 25bps reduction at next month’s meeting dropped to 48 percent from 56 percent at the close of trade last week.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (OCT)

5.1%

-

-5.8%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (NOV)

0.1%

-

0.0%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (NOV)

1.8%

-

1.8%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT P)

1.4%

1.8%

1.1%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT P)

-1.4%

-0.9%

-0.8%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (OCT)

1.8%

0.9%

-0.1%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)

1.1%

0.3%

0.8%

23:50

JPY

Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales (OCT)

2.9%

3.0%

1.7%

00:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (NOV)

32.0

-

23.7

00:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (NOV)

14.6

-

10.5

00:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (3Q)

1.3%

1.0%

-0.5%

00:30

AUD

Inventories SA (QoQ) (3Q)

0.1%

0.0%

0.2%

00:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (OCT)

0.7%

0.6%

0.7%

00:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (OCT)

6.7%

6.6%

6.6%

01:00

JPY

BOJ’s Kuroda Speaks in Nagoya

-

-

-

02:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (OCT)

7.7%

-

8.5%

04:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (OCT)

-0.5%

-

-2.6%

05:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (OCT)

-2.5%

2.6%

2.6%

05:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (OCT)

0.862M

0.908M

0.900M

05:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (OCT)

-25.2%

-

6.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)

0.4%

0.0%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)

2.9%

3.4%

Medium

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (NOV)

100.2

99.8

Low

08:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (NOV 27)

-

468.3B

Low

08:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (NOV 27)

-

402.7B

Low

09:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (OCT)

1.3B

1.3B

Low

09:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (OCT)

3.4B

3.6B

Low

09:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (OCT)

69.9K

68.9K

Medium

09:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (OCT)

-

-1.0%

Low

09:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (OCT)

-

-0.6%

Low

09:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (OCT)

3.0%

4.0%

Low

09:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (NOV)

-

50.0

Low

13:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (NOV P)

0.1%

0.0%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (NOV P)

0.4%

0.3%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (NOV P)

0.1%

0.0%

Low

13:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (NOV P)

0.3%

0.2%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0462

1.0531

1.0562

1.0600

1.0631

1.0669

1.0738

GBPUSD

1.4901

1.4980

1.5008

1.5059

1.5087

1.5138

1.5217

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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