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Australian Dollar Turns Lower as RBA Rate Cut Speculation Builds

Australian Dollar Turns Lower as RBA Rate Cut Speculation Builds

2015-10-16 05:35:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Probability Rises to Six-Week High
  • New Zealand Dollar Corrects Downward Despite Upbeat Third-Quarter CPI
  • Euro May Fall if CPI Revision Bolsters ECB Stimulus Expansion Speculation

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade amid growing speculation that an RBA interest rate cut is on the horizon. Indeed, prices slid alongside a parallel drop in Australia’s front-end yields. Traders now price in a 62 percent probability of a 25 basis point reduction in the benchmark cash rate at next month’s policy meeting. That amounts to the highest conviction in on-coming easing in six weeks.

The New Zealand Dollar likewise faced selling pressure despite an upbeat set of third-quarter CPI figures. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate printed at 0.4 percent, topping economists’ forecasts calling for a 0.3 percent result. The release initially sent the Kiwi higher alongside front-end bond yields as traders pared back RBNZ rate cut bets. The move fizzled quickly however, giving way to corrective selling following yesterday’s outsized rally. As we noted at the time, the surge probably reflected a response to comments from RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler that seemed to suggest the central bank is in no hurry to ease further.

The final set of September’s Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to be confirmed at 0.9 percent. While ECB President Mario Draghi said the existing QE effort of €60 billion/month in asset purchases has “surpassed [policymakers’] initial expectations” – seemingly dismissing the likelihood of stimulus expansion in the near term – the markets seem dubious. Indeed, money markets appear to be hinting at a further deposit rate reduction. Such speculation may be amplified if CPI is revised lower, weighing on the Euro.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

CPI (QoQ) (3Q)

0.3%

0.2%

0.4%

21:45

NZD

CPI (YoY) (3Q)

0.4%

0.3%

0.4%

00:30

AUD

RBA Financial Stability Review

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

EU27 New Car Registrations (SEP)

-

11.2%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance SA (AUG)

22.1B

22.4B

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance NSA (AUG)

20.0B

31.4B

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (SEP)

0.2%

0.0%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (SEP F)

-0.1%

-0.1%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (SEP F)

0.9%

0.9%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1151

1.1283

1.1335

1.1415

1.1467

1.1547

1.1679

GBPUSD

1.5273

1.5367

1.5413

1.5461

1.5507

1.5555

1.5649

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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