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World Bank, IMF Meetings May Disrupt Otherwise Quiet Week-End

World Bank, IMF Meetings May Disrupt Otherwise Quiet Week-End

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • World Bank & IMF Meetings Create Headline Risk, Fed-Speak May Pass Quietly
  • Australian, NZ Dollars Rise as Asian Markets Respond to Dovish FOMC Minutes
  • See Economic Data Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A quiet economic data docket through the end of the trading week will keep the spotlight on central bank commentary. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans are scheduled to speak.

Markets have already head from both policymakers in the aftermath of last month’s rate decision. Mr Lockhart has continued to call for “liftoff” this year while Mr Evans has taken a predictably dovish posture, preferring to wait until next year.

Fed officials’ medium-term perspective suggests little has changed in their outlook in just two weeks, meaning traders are unlikely to hear anything so novel as to generate meaningful trend development. That hints at a consolidative tone in the hours ahead.

Sideline commentary from the World Bank and IMF annual meeting in Lima, Peru represents headline risk. The coming together of a large group of the world’s top-tier policymakers and an army of journalists is likely to create ample opportunities for sentiment-shaping news-flow. Needless to say, the centrality of emerging-market growth concerns in recent months makes such a scenario all the more likely.

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade as Asian markets on-boarded cues from minutes from September’s FOMC meeting. The moves tracked a drop in front-end US Treasury bond yields, suggesting markets walked away with a dovish interpretation of the release.

The prospect of a longer delay in Fed stimulus withdrawal likewise bolstered risk appetite. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rose anew after the prior session’s pullback,adding over 1 percent.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This is Probably Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Card Spending Retail (MoM) (SEP)

0.9%

0.4%

0.5%

21:45

NZD

Card Spending Total (MoM) (SEP)

0.7%

-

0.1%

00:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) (AUG)

2.9%

4.7%

-0.3%

00:30

AUD

Investment Lending (AUG)

-0.4%

-

-0.3%

00:30

AUD

Owner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (AUG)

6.1%

-

1.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:30

GBP

Construction Output (MoM) (AUG)

1.0%

-1.0%

Low

08:30

GBP

Construction Output (YoY) (AUG)

1.4%

-0.7%

Low

08:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£/Mn) (AUG)

-9925

-11082

Medium

08:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£/Mn) (AUG)

-3000

-3461

Medium

08:30

GBP

Trade Balance (£) (AUG)

-2150

-3371

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1095

1.1187

1.1232

1.1279

1.1324

1.1371

1.1463

GBPUSD

1.5107

1.5217

1.5282

1.5327

1.5392

1.5437

1.5547

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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