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NZ Dollar Gains as Dairy Price Jump Cools RBNZ Rate Cut Bets

NZ Dollar Gains as Dairy Price Jump Cools RBNZ Rate Cut Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • NZ Dollar Gains as Dairy Price Jump Weighs Against RBNZ Rate Cut Bets
  • Yen, Euro May Weaken as Commodity Dollars Firm on Swelling Risk Appetite
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much 0.8 percent on average against its leading counterparts, after the average price at the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction jumped 10 percent, marking the fourth consecutive advance.

Dairy accounts for the lion’s share of New Zealand’s exports. A pickup in prices bodes well for producers’ earnings. Traders appeared to speculate that this will prove supportive for overall economic growth, weighing on RBNZ rate cut bets. Indeed, the Kiwi rallied alongside front-end bond yields.

The Australian and Canadian Dollars advanced as risk appetite firmed in Asian trade, offering support to the sentiment-linked currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index rose as much as 1.3 percent. The Japanese Yen likewise advanced after the Bank of Japan opted to keep monetary policy unchanged and offered no guidance pointing to on-coming stimulus expansion.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European and US trading hours is likely to put sentiment trends in the driver’s seat. S&P 500 futures are pointing firmly higher, hinting a risk-on mood is likely to prevail. That may bode well for higher-yielding commodity bloc FX at the expense of funding currencies including the Yen and Euro.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Construction Index (SEP)

51.9

-

53.8

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

-1.9%

-

-1.4%

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets ($) (SEP)

1248.9B

-

1244.2B

02:19

CNY

Foreign Reserves ($) (SEP)

3514.1B

3500.0B

3557.4B

03:00

JPY

BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base

¥80T

¥80T

¥80T

05:00

JPY

Leading Index CI (AUG P)

103.5

103.4

105.0

05:00

JPY

Coincident Index (AUG P)

112.5

112.3

113.1

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG)

0.2%

0.7%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG)

3.3%

0.5%

Medium

07:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (SEP)

-

540.4B

Low

07:05

AUD

RBA’s Debelle Speaks in Sydney

-

-

Medium

08:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG)

0.3%

-0.4%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG)

1.2%

0.8%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (AUG)

0.3%

-0.8%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (AUG)

-0.2%

-0.5%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1025

1.1133

1.1203

1.1241

1.1311

1.1349

1.1457

GBPUSD

1.4997

1.5100

1.5163

1.5203

1.5266

1.5306

1.5409

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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