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Yen May Extend Gains on Chinese Trade Data, Grexit Fears

Yen May Extend Gains on Chinese Trade Data, Grexit Fears

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Aussie Dollar Drops, Yen Gains as Chinese & Greek News Sour Sentiment
  • S&P 500 Futures Point Lower, Hinting at Continued Risk Aversion Ahead
  • See Economic Data Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.6 percent on average against its leading currency counterparts. The move followed a disappointing set of Chinese Trade Balance figures released over the weekend.

The report showed exports unexpectedly fell 3.3 percent year-on-year in January, marking the first decline since March 2014. Imports slid 19.9 percent, amounting to the worst print since May 2009. China is Australia’s top trading partner and signs of sluggish activity there bode ill for the latter country’s growth prospects and reinforce RBA interest rate cut speculation.

The Japanese Yen pushed higher, adding as much as 0.3 percent against the majors. The move tracked a drop on most Asian stock exchanges as signs of slowing momentum in the world’s second-largest economy fueled risk aversion, driving an unwinding of carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to keep sentiment trends at the forefront. S&P 500 futures are pointing markedly lower, hinting at continued risk aversion in the cards ahead. Comments from newly-minted Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras rejecting his country’s EU/IMF bailout – raising the probability of so-called “Grexit” – may compound investors’ dour mood.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

2:27

CNY

Trade Balance CNY (JAN)(Yuan)

366.90B

-

304.56B

2:27

CNY

Imports (YoY) (JAN)

-19.9%

-3.2%

-2.4%

2:27

CNY

Imports (YoY) CNY (JAN)

-19.7%

-

-2.3%

2:27

CNY

Trade Balance (JAN)

$60.03B

$48.20B

$49.61B

2:27

CNY

Exports (YoY) CNY (JAN)

-3.2%

-

9.9%

2:27

CNY

Exports (YoY) (JAN)

-3.3%

5.8%

9.0%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JAN)

2.5%

-

2.6%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JAN)

2.6%

2.8%

2.8%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (DEC)

¥187.2B

¥355.8B

¥433.0B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (DEC)

¥976.6B

¥940.8B

¥914.5B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (DEC)

-¥395.6B

-¥472.0B

-¥636.8B

0:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JAN)

1.3%

-

1.8%

1:30

JPY

BOJ’s Morimoto Speaks in Chiba

-

-

-

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (JAN)

-16.55%

-

-8.53%

5:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence Index (JAN)

39.1

39.3

38.8

6:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JAN)

45.8

46.7

6:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JAN)

45.8

45.2

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:40

GBP

BOE’s Carney Speaks at IIF Event in Istanbul

-

-

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (DEC)

€16.0B

€7.9B

Low

7:00

EUR

German Current Account (DEC)

€20.8B

€18.6B

Low

7:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

1.0%

-1.9%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

0.2%

1.6%

Low

8:00

CHF

SNB Sight Deposits

-

-

Low

9:30

EUR

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (FEB)

3.0

0.9

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1023

1.1197

1.1256

1.1371

1.1430

1.1545

1.1719

GBPUSD

1.4989

1.5129

1.5186

1.5269

1.5326

1.5409

1.5549

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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