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Pound Eyeing Carney Comments for Guidance, Euro to Look Past PMIs

Pound Eyeing Carney Comments for Guidance, Euro to Look Past PMIs

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Pound Looks to BOE Governor Carney Remarks for Updated Rates Outlook
  • Euro Unlikely to Find a Potent Catalyst in January’s Round of PMI Readings
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Scheduled commentary from BOE Governor Mark Carney headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The central bank chief is set to participate in a debate at the Davos Economic Forum. Traders will be most keen to hear any clues about the impact of yesterday’s ECB stimulus expansion on the BOE’s own policy direction. Sluggish growth on the Continent has exerted considerable pressure on BOE rate hike bets and traders will now want to hear if Mr Carney envisions the impact of ECB’s efforts as a possible driver for tightening sooner.

January’s preliminary set of Eurozone PMI readings is likewise on tap. The region-wide Composite index is expected to show manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth narrowly accelerated this month, yielding the second consecutive improvement. The outcome seems unlikely to yield much of a reaction from the Euro however considering its limited implications for near-term monetary policy after the ECB’s high-profile announcement yesterday.

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent against its major counterparts. The move tracked a decline in S&P 500 index futures, suggesting on-coming risk aversion cues fueled demand for the safety-linked currency. The US Dollar likewise advanced, seemingly sailing on carry-over momentum after setting a six-year high in the prior session.

The Australian Dollar underperformed, sliding as much as 0.6 percent. The currency declined alongside Australian bond prices, pointing to ebbing demand for AUD-denominated assets as the catalyst. The rout may have reflected broad pessimism in Australian growth prospects as a sharp overnight drop in copper prices highlighted headwinds facing the country’s pivotal mining sector. This has translated into deepening RBA rate cut bets, with a Credit Suisse gauge tracking the priced-in 12-month policy outlook dropping to the lowest since July 2013 intraday.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
1:35JPYMarkit/JMMA Mfg PMI (JAN P)52.1-52
1:45CNYHSBC Mfg PMI (JAN P)49.849.549.6

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXP/ACTPREVIMPACT
8:00GBPBOE’s Mark Carney Speaks in Davos--High
8:00EURMarkit France Manufacturing PMI (JAN P)48.047.5Low
8:00EURMarkit France Composite PMI (JAN P)50.149.7Low
8:00EURMarkit France Services PMI (JAN P)50.850.6Low
8:30EURMarkit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (JAN P)51.751.2Medium
8:30EURMarkit Germany Services PMI (JAN P)52.552.1Medium
8:30EURMarkit/BME Germany Comp PMI (JAN P)52.452.0Medium
9:00EURMarkit Eurozone Mfg PMI (JAN P)51.050.6Medium
9:00EURMarkit Eurozone Services PMI (JAN P)52.051.6Medium
9:00EURMarkit Eurozone Comp PMI (JAN P)51.751.4Medium
9:30GBPRetail Sales ex Auto (MoM) (DEC)-0.7%1.7%Medium
9:30GBPRetail Sales ex Auto (YoY) (DEC)3.4%6.9%Medium
9:30GBPRetail Sales incl Auto (MoM) (DEC)-0.6%1.6%Low
9:30GBPRetail Sales incl Auto (YoY) (DEC)3.0%6.4%Low
11:40GBPBOE’s Gracie Speaks in London--Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.07761.11101.12381.14441.15721.17781.2112
GBPUSD1.45851.48251.49181.50651.51581.53051.5545

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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