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Pound Eyeing Carney Comments for Guidance, Euro to Look Past PMIs

Pound Eyeing Carney Comments for Guidance, Euro to Look Past PMIs

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Pound Looks to BOE Governor Carney Remarks for Updated Rates Outlook
  • Euro Unlikely to Find a Potent Catalyst in January’s Round of PMI Readings
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Scheduled commentary from BOE Governor Mark Carney headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The central bank chief is set to participate in a debate at the Davos Economic Forum. Traders will be most keen to hear any clues about the impact of yesterday’s ECB stimulus expansion on the BOE’s own policy direction. Sluggish growth on the Continent has exerted considerable pressure on BOE rate hike bets and traders will now want to hear if Mr Carney envisions the impact of ECB’s efforts as a possible driver for tightening sooner.

January’s preliminary set of Eurozone PMI readings is likewise on tap. The region-wide Composite index is expected to show manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth narrowly accelerated this month, yielding the second consecutive improvement. The outcome seems unlikely to yield much of a reaction from the Euro however considering its limited implications for near-term monetary policy after the ECB’s high-profile announcement yesterday.

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent against its major counterparts. The move tracked a decline in S&P 500 index futures, suggesting on-coming risk aversion cues fueled demand for the safety-linked currency. The US Dollar likewise advanced, seemingly sailing on carry-over momentum after setting a six-year high in the prior session.

The Australian Dollar underperformed, sliding as much as 0.6 percent. The currency declined alongside Australian bond prices, pointing to ebbing demand for AUD-denominated assets as the catalyst. The rout may have reflected broad pessimism in Australian growth prospects as a sharp overnight drop in copper prices highlighted headwinds facing the country’s pivotal mining sector. This has translated into deepening RBA rate cut bets, with a Credit Suisse gauge tracking the priced-in 12-month policy outlook dropping to the lowest since July 2013 intraday.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Mfg PMI (JAN P)

52.1

-

52

1:45

CNY

HSBC Mfg PMI (JAN P)

49.8

49.5

49.6

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

GBP

BOE’s Mark Carney Speaks in Davos

-

-

High

8:00

EUR

Markit France Manufacturing PMI (JAN P)

48.0

47.5

Low

8:00

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (JAN P)

50.1

49.7

Low

8:00

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (JAN P)

50.8

50.6

Low

8:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (JAN P)

51.7

51.2

Medium

8:30

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (JAN P)

52.5

52.1

Medium

8:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Comp PMI (JAN P)

52.4

52.0

Medium

9:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (JAN P)

51.0

50.6

Medium

9:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JAN P)

52.0

51.6

Medium

9:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Comp PMI (JAN P)

51.7

51.4

Medium

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto (MoM) (DEC)

-0.7%

1.7%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto (YoY) (DEC)

3.4%

6.9%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales incl Auto (MoM) (DEC)

-0.6%

1.6%

Low

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales incl Auto (YoY) (DEC)

3.0%

6.4%

Low

11:40

GBP

BOE’s Gracie Speaks in London

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0776

1.1110

1.1238

1.1444

1.1572

1.1778

1.2112

GBPUSD

1.4585

1.4825

1.4918

1.5065

1.5158

1.5305

1.5545

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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