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Euro May Overlook German ZEW Data as Traders Await ECB Meeting

Euro May Overlook German ZEW Data as Traders Await ECB Meeting

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Outperforms on Firming Fed Policy Bets, Yen Falls on Risk Swell
  • Euro May Overlook German ZEW as Traders Await ECB Meeting Outcome
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked an advance in front-end Treasury bond yields, suggesting that firming Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations were behind the move.

The New Zealand Dollar bore the brunt of the greenback’s advance, dropping as much as 0.8 percent alongside rates on the island nation’s five-year note, seemingly reflecting erosion in the RBNZ rate hike outlook. We remain short NZDUSD.

The Japanese Yen likewise declined, falling as much as 0.6 percent. Risk trends look to have sparked the selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rose 0.4 percent, sapping demand for the safety-linked unit.

January’s German ZEW survey of investor confidence headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The forward-looking Expectations index is expected to advance for a third consecutive month, hitting the strongest level since April.

The outcome may not offer meaningful support to the Euro however considering the limited implications of an improvement for monetary policy bets. Investors are also unlikely to be willing to commit to a firm directional bias this week’s much-anticipated ECB rate decision.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

NZIER Business Opinion Survey (4Q)

23

-

19

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

113.6

-

112.0

2:00

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (DEC)

15.7%

15.7%

15.8%

2:00

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (DEC)

12.0%

12.0%

12.0%

2:00

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC)

11.9%

11.7%

11.7%

2:00

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (DEC)

8.3%

8.2%

8.3%

2:00

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC)

7.9%

7.4%

7.2%

2:00

CNY

GDP s.a. (QoQ) (4Q)

1.5%

1.7%

1.9%

2:00

CNY

GDP (YoY) (4Q)

7.3%

7.2%

7.3%

2:00

CNY

GDP YTD (YoY) (4Q)

7.4%

7.3%

7.4%

2:07

CNY

Bloomberg GDP Monthly Estimate (DEC)

7.07%

-

6.74%

7:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (DEC)

-

-1.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German PPI (MoM) (DEC)

-0.4%

0.0%

Low

7:00

EUR

German PPI (YoY) (DEC)

-1.4%

-0.9%

Low

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (JAN)

13.0

10.0

Medium

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (JAN)

40.0

34.9

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (JAN)

-

31.8

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1411

1.1504

1.1555

1.1597

1.1648

1.1690

1.1783

GBPUSD

1.4994

1.5064

1.5088

1.5134

1.5158

1.5204

1.5274

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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