Record-Low Australia Core CPI to Cast Bearish AUD/USD Outlook
- Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Narrow for Second Consecutive Quarter.
- Core Inflation to Slow to Annualized 1.5%- Slowest Pace of Growth Since Series Began in 1983.
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Trading the News: Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Another slowdown in Australia’s headline & core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may trigger fresh monthly lows in AUD/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to further support the rebalancing of the real economy.
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Why Is This Event Important:
The RBA may continue to embark on its easing cycle and cut the benchmark interest rate at the next policy meeting on August 2 as Governor Glenn Stevens and Co. warns inflation is ‘still expected to remain quite low for some time given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world.’
Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario
|NAB Business Confidence (2Q)||--||2|
|Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY)||0.3%||0.2%|
|Wage Price Index (YoY) (1Q)||2.2%||2.1%|
Waning business confidence accompanied by the slowdown in household consumption may drag on price growth, and a fresh record-low reading for the core rate of inflation is likely to drag on AUD/USD as it fuels speculation for additional monetary support.
Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario
|Full-Time Employment Change (JUN)||--||38.4K|
|Consumer Inflation Expectations (JUN)||--||3.5%|
|Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q)||2.8%||3.1%|
However, the ongoing improvement in the labor market paired with signs of a stronger-than-expected recovery may encourage sticky price growth in Australia, and a positive development may spark a near-term rebound in AUD/USD as market participants scale back bets for an RBA rate-cut.
How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)
Bearish AUD Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Slows in 2Q
- Need red, five-minute candle following the print for a short AUD/USD trade.
- If market reaction favors a bearish aussie position, sell AUD/USD with two separate lots.
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
- Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.
Bullish AUD Trade: Australia CPI Tops Market Forecast
- Need green, five-minute candle to consider a long AUD/USD position.
- Carry out the same setup as the bearish aussie trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
- AUD/USD may work its way back towards the top of its recent range as it largely preserves the upward trend from the end of May, but the bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may undermine the near-term rebound in the exchange rate, with a closing price below 0.7450 (38.2% retracement) opening up the downside targets.
- Key Resistance: 0.7848 (June 2015 high) to 0.7860 (61.8% expansion)
- Key Support: 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.6830 (161.8% expansion)
Check out the short-term technical levels that matter for AUD/USD heading into the report!
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Impact that the Australia CPI report has had on AUD during the last release
|Period||Data Released||Estimate||Actual||Pips Change||Pips Change|
|1Q 2016||04/26/2016 01:30 GMT||1.7%||1.3%||-87||-169|
1Q 2016 Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI)
AUD/USD 5-Minute Chart
Australia’s Consumer Price Index narrowed more-than-expected in the first-quarter of 2016, with the headline reading slipping to an annualized 1.3% from 1.7% from the last three-months of 2015, while the core rate of inflation slipped to 1.7% during the same period amid forecasts for a 2.0% print. A deeper look at the report showed education costs falling 0.4% to lead the decline, with prices for clothing & footwear narrowing 0.1%, while transportation costs increased another 0.1% after rising 0.6% in the fourth-quarter of 2015. The Australian dollar struggled to hold its ground following the soft inflation report, with AUD/USD slipping below 0.7600 handle to end the day at 0.7584.
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
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