News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/jZHcyAZ5SU
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on EUR with our free guide, available today: https://t.co/XtydfV5wS6 https://t.co/Iw9haaHAnn
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sr63f https://t.co/raO3gCGqQ6
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/rWVlBs6H3c
  • The update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to sway the US Dollar during the Federal Reserve’s blackout period as the central bank braces for a transitory rise in inflation. Get your weekly $USD forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/JTuP7CLlyi https://t.co/tOvqn3Gdpc
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/s5dn4ZKnku
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACyvdZ https://t.co/6VjW5FEiQW
  • Global stocks bounce back from recent pullback as key resistance levels lie ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/wXSWo1JygD https://t.co/vWVaSEQTXT
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/9kfBu04auM
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5ddzFV https://t.co/8GJ6OQYgnW
EUR/USD to Eye Resistance on Upbeat German Unemployment Report

EUR/USD to Eye Resistance on Upbeat German Unemployment Report

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- German Unemployment to Contract for Fifth Consecutive Month in February.

- Jobless Rate to Hold at Record-Low of 6.5% for Second Month.

Trading the News: German Unemployment Change

Another 10K contraction in German Unemployment may encourage a near-term rebound in EUR/USD as it raises the prospects for a stronger recovery in the euro-area.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD German Unemployment

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

A further improvement in Europe’s largest economy may limit the European Central Bank’s (ECB) scope to further embark on its easing cycle and heighten the appeal of the single currency especially as the member-states take unprecedented steps to mitigate the risk for contagion.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)

0.3%

0.7%

Trade Balance (DEC)

16.0B

19.1B

Factory Orders (MoM) (DEC)

1.5%

4.2%

Greater demand from home and abroad may encourage German firms to further expand their labor force, and a better-than-expected print may spur a bullish reaction in EUR/USD as it raises the outlook for growth and inflation.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

IFO Business Climate (FEB)

107.7

106.8

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB P)

51.5

50.9

Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

0.4%

0.1%

However, waning business confidence paired with the slowdown in production may drag on employment, and a dismal labor report may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the Euro as ECB President Mario Draghi keeps the door open to further support the monetary union.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish EUR Trade: Unemployment Contracts 10K or Greater

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long EUR/USD trade
  • If market reaction favors buying Euro, long EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit

Bearish EUR Trade: German Labor Report Disappoints

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish Euro trade, just in opposite direction

Read More:

Price & Time: USD/JPY Waiting On A Catalyst

COT-Small Traders Flip to Short Crude Oil Position

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Long-term outlook remains bearish as the RSI retains the downward trend from 2013, but need a break/close below support to revert back to the approach to ‘sell bounces’ in EUR/USD.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1440 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1480 (78.6% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.1300 (161.8% expansion) to 1.1310 (100% expansion)

Join DailyFX on Demandfor Real-Time Updates on the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index!

Impact that the GermanyUnemployment Change has had on EUR during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JAN 2015

01/29/2015 08:55 GMT

-10.0K

-9.0K

+20

+33

January 2015 Germany Unemployment Change

EUR/USD Daily

The number of unemployed in Germany contracted 9.0K in January, while the jobless rate narrowed to a record-low of 6.5% from a revised 6.6% the month prior. Despite the ongoing improvement in Europe’s largest economy, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) may continue to highlight a dovish tone for monetary policy as it struggles to achieve its one and only mandate to deliver price stability. Nevertheless, EUR/USD tracked higher following the report, with the pair pushing above the 1.1300 handle to end the day at 1.1326.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES