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Price & Time: USD/JPY Waiting On A Catalyst

Price & Time: USD/JPY Waiting On A Catalyst

2015-02-24 13:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: USD/JPY Waiting On A Catalyst

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode below the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s high
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1.1450
  • Important downside pivots are seen at 1.1260 and 1.1210 with weakness below needed to signal a broader downside resumption
  • A turn window is eyed around the end of the week
  • A close above 1.1450 would turn us positive on the euro again

EUR/USD Strategy: Square for now.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.1210

*1.1260

1.1325

1.1365

*1.1450

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: USD/JPY Waiting On A Catalyst

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GOLD fell to its lowest level in a month and a half yesterday
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1224
  • The 78.6% retracement of the year’s range at 1196 remains a key pivot with a close below needed to set up the next leg lower
  • A very minor turn window is eyed mid-week
  • A close back over 1224 would turn us positive on the metal

GOLD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1224.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GOLD

1183

*1196

1199

1213

*1224

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

Price & Time: USD/JPY Waiting On A Catalyst

The jury is still out on USD/JPY. What looked like a promising break from a multi-month consolidation at the start of the month has stagnated into a choppy mess over the past couple of weeks. Our bias is higher while key support at 118.20/40 holds, but we recognize that the longer the exchange rate lingers here the greater the possibility that things could morph into some sort of false pattern breakdown scenario. Strength above 119.60 is needed to re-instill some upside momentum in USD/JPY, but the real big upside pivot for us remains the late December high around 120.80 with traction above there needed to signal that a much more important move to the upside is indeed unfolding.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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