News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @IGSquawk: High short interest stocks: $GME 334.48 +126.27% $FIZZ 169.3 +31.01% $MAC 94.09 -9.96% $BBBY 22.37 +14.9% $LGND 49.43 +34.07%…
  • Heads Up:🇰🇷 Business Confidence (JAN) due at 21:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 82
  • The Euro is under pressure this morning following surprisingly dovish comments from ECB’s Knot, going against his typically more hawkish stance. Get your $EURUSD market update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • US equities hovering near session lows in wake of the FOMC statement and press conference from Fed Chair Powell. The S&P 500 Index is currently trading -2.7% lower with 30-minutes to go until the close. $SPX $SPY $ES_F #Stocks
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Have not made decision on removing bank restrictions -Some housing tightness is passing phenomenon -Large increases in home prices unlikely to be sustained -Corporate defaults have been fewer than expected -We haven't seen as much scarring as we feared
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Emergency lending facilities were very helpful to economy -Haven't talked with US Treasury about emergency tools
  • Federal Reserve holds its policy interest rate and pace of asset purchases steady as expected. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @RichardSnowFX here:
  • Fed Chair Powell: -World has been struggling with disinflationary forces for a while -US inflation dynamics won't change much over near term -More concerned about recovery than pickup in inflation -Inflation resembling past decades seems unlikely
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Talk of tapering asset purchases is premature -Just too early to be talking about dates on tapering bond buying plans -Tapering would be gradual when we do it -Whole focus on exit is premature $SPX $NDX $DJI $USD $DXY $XAUUSD $TNX
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Pandemic, new virus strains still provide considerable downside risks -Will take quite a while to get to herd immunity -Vaccine rollout likely to be a struggle -Nothing more important to economy now than vaccinations
EUR/USD Risks Larger Rebound on Dismal U.S. Retail Sales Report

EUR/USD Risks Larger Rebound on Dismal U.S. Retail Sales Report

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.S. Advance Retail Sales to Contract for Second Consecutive Month.

- Will Lower Energy Prices Help Boost Private-Sector Consumption?

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

Another contraction in U.S. Retail Sales may drag on the greenback and generate a near-term rebound in EUR/USD as it dampens the Fed’s scope to raise the benchmark interest rate in mid-2015.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD Retail Sales

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

The Fed may have little choice but to further delay its normalization cycle as lower energy costs show little evidence of boosting private-sector consumption, and we may see the central bank implement a more dovish twist to the forward-guidance for monetary policy as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Consumer Credit (DEC)



Personal Spending (DEC)



Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (4Q A)



The ongoing slowdown in private-sector lending may weigh on household consumption, and a dismal retail sales report may undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar as it drags on interest rate expectations.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Non-Farm Payrolls (JAN)



Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JAN)



Personal Income (DEC)



Nevertheless, the pickup in job/wage growth may pave the way for a better-than-expected print, and a positive development may spark a bearish reaction in EUR/USD as market participants ramp up bets for higher borrowing-costs.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time Updates on the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Sales Falls Another 0.4% or Greater

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bullish USD Trade: Private Consumption Exceeds Market Forecast

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release


USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish as the RSI retains the downward trend carried over from back in October 2013.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1600 pivot to 1.6110 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.1096 (2015 low) to 1.1100 pivot

Read More:

AUDCAD Threatens Weekly Opening Range- Long Scalps Favored Above 9750

CADJPY Holding Trend Support, For Now

Impact that the U.S. Retail Sales report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)



01/14/2014 13:30 GMT





December 2014 U.S. Advance Retail Sales

EUR/USD Risks Larger Rebound on Dismal U.S. Retail Sales Report

U.S. Retail Sales contracted 0.9% in December, largely driven by lower gas receipts, after climbing a revised 0.4% the month prior. Despite the worse-than-expected print, it seems as though the Fed remains confident in raising the benchmark interest rate in mid-2015 as the central bank anticipates falling oil prices to have a positive impact on the economy as it boosts disposable incomes. Nevertheless, the dollar struggled to hold its ground following the print, with EUR/USD climbing above the 1.1825 region, but the market reaction was short-lived as the pair consolidated throughout the North America trade to end the day at 1.1773.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.