News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Fed's Evans: - Doesn't see a great risk of inflation rising too quickly - Could see inflation temporarily above 2% - Higher inflation that delivers 2% on average is ok - It would be extraordinary for inflation to get up to 3%, wouldn't be a real problem even if it does #Fed $USD
  • USD/CAD struggles to retain the advance from the February low (1.2468) as Federal Reserve officials show little interest in adjusting the path for monetary policy. Get your $USDCAD market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • Fed's Evans: - Optimistic about recovery - Expects unemployment to be closer to 5% by end of 2021 #Fed $USD
  • Mid-Week Market Check Up- $USD, $EURUSD, $USDCAD, #Gold, #Silver, $SPX & #Bitcoin and More! (Webinar Archive)-
  • Fed's Evans: - 2021 should deliver a strong economic rebound - Fiscal support will be very helpful - There is still quite a gap in employment - Headline unemployment rate masks lots of people still on sidelines #Fed $USD
  • EU says UK is in "clear departure" from "constructive approach" - BBG.
  • EU says UK is violating its obligations under N.I. protocol. $EUR $GBP
  • The US Dollar remains strong but is trading lower than yesterday's multi-week highs. The $DXY tested the 91.00 level today ahead of the ISM Services print but traded lower after the print noted a slowing of activity in February. $USD
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.01%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 65.87%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Evans Speech due at 18:00 GMT (15min)
Preview for July NFPs & Strategy Outlook for USD-pairs

Preview for July NFPs & Strategy Outlook for USD-pairs

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- The DXY Index is sitting near its yearly lows ahead of the July NFP report.

- Data today will either provoke another downdraft in the greenback, or could prove to be the stabilizing force the US Dollar desperately needs.

- The retail trading crowd remains net-long the US Dollar, even as positioning has narrowed over the past week.

Join us today at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT for live coverage of the July US Nonfarm Payrolls report in the DailyFX Live Trading Room - register here.

The key issue surrounding today's July US Nonfarm Payrolls report is whether or not the US labor market is improving enough to reduce labor market slack and push up wage growth (which should help inflation), in order to justify the Federal Reserve hiking rates again before the end of of 2017.

As it stands today, markets don't think another hike is coming: Fed funds futures are pricing in March 2018 as the most likely period for the next move. Market participants will be paying attention to the wage component of the report in particular, which has been admittedly lacking gusto despite the unemployment rate holding near the Fed's defintion of "full employment" (at 5% or lower) since for October 2015.

Current expectations for today's data remain are modest after disappointing ADP and ISM Services figures earlier in the week, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to 4.3%, and the headline jobs figure to come in at +180K. Wage growth is due in around +2.5% y/y. Using a 10-year rolling model, the ADP report and the ISM Services report can account for 91% of the changes in the NFP figure (R^2 = 0.91). In sum, these proximal trackers of the US labor market correspond with pace of jobs growth between +155 to +180K.

The big picture: so long as it comes in above +75K to +125K, the jobs data will be good enough to keep the economy on track to maintain the unemployment rate (U3) at 4.3% through the end of 2017 (as per Fed Chair Janet Yellen's commentary at the end of February). The Atlanta Fed Jobs Calculator shows that the US economy needs to add +115K jobs each month for the rest of 2017 to maintain the unemployment rate at 4.3%.

Chart 1: USD/JPY Daily Timeframe (March to August 2017)

Preview for July NFPs & Strategy Outlook for USD-pairs

The timing of the US NFP report couldn't be more important for the US Dollar, especially now that US yields have started to turn lower again. Failure to meet expectations today could easily yield another swing lower in US yields, which would surely send USD/JPY tumbling below key support upon which it currently rests: the trendline from the April and June 2017 swing lows. The key line in the sand today is 110.15: if above, USD/JPY may have room to stabilize going forward.

Read more: Did BOE Just Mark the Top in GBP-crosses? JPY in Focus

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.