Talking Points
- DXY constrained today by bounce in Euro; Euro constitutes 57.6% of the index.
- USD/JPY making a favorable turn at a key point; like USD/JPY, Gold continues to ride its daily 8-EMA.
- Fed funds futures pricing in a 100% chance of a 25-bps rate hike in December; next two hikes in June 2017 and December 2017 (from December 2017 and December 2018 pre-US elections).
The US Dollar is having a mixed morning if you look at DXY Index, but that's notably thrown askew by the Euro's significant overweighting; broadly, DXY is starting to edge back higher as the Euro's rally abates.
Yet elsewhere, the greenback remains on firm footing, making further progress with technical advances in AUD/USD (breakdown of triangle dating back to January 2015) and USD/JPY (breakout through 110.75/111.75 area, support/resistance starting in February 2015).
Naturally, if USD/JPY is going to rally, then Gold is probably going to fall. The strong relationship between Gold and the Japanese Yen has been noted for several months now, and it remains to be the case today. With USD/JPY hold the 110.75/111.75 area as support on the recent retest while maintaining its bullish posture above its daily 8-EMA, signs are pointing to further gains through the end of the week. Accordingly, USD/JPY's improved bullish posture has translated into a weaker structure Gold (both are under the same influence: rising US real yields).
See the above video for technical considerations in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, GBP/USD, Crude Oil, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, and DXY Index.
Read more: DXY with a Strong Technical Signal: EUR/USD, Gold in Trouble
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
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