Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Trade Setups in USD-pairs around September US NFPs

Trade Setups in USD-pairs around September US NFPs

Christopher Vecchio, CFA,

Talking Points:

- ST EURUSD triangle begins to break lower; $1.1085 critical support.

- USDJPY remains rangebound, although NFPs could change that.

- See the DailyFX economic calendar for Thursday, October 1, 2015.

Coming into today, the USDOLLAR Index is trading in an intraweek bull flag just below the early-September highs. With the help of a strong September US labor market report it could be well on its way back towards its 2015 highs. There doesn't appear much room for error for the US Dollar, now that markets (per the Fed funds futures contracts) have started to price out 2015 for the Fed to raise rates.

A miss on the solid but not spectacular forecasts - NFPs expected at +201K from +173K prior, and the UR at 5.1% unchanged - could more or less eliminate October and December as "live meetings" for rate hikes. However, there's a caveat. Attention to the prior data releases is important, especially for this release: over the past five years, August NFPs have enjoyed an average revision of +79K (the best for any single month during the year). A slight miss on the September figures coupled with a large upward revision could provide sufficient enough support to USD-pairs.

Not all USD-pairs are treated equally, especially around NFPs: EURUSD offers a bearish outcome; USDJPY offers trades in both directions; and AUDUSD may be best suited for a rally on a disappointing report.

See the above video for the levels of importance in the EURUSD and USDJPY triangles, as well as technical considerations in AUDUSD and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: USDOLLAR Rally Contingent on Holding Daily 5-EMA

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.