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USDOLLAR Rally Contingent on Holding Daily 5-EMA

USDOLLAR Rally Contingent on Holding Daily 5-EMA

2015-10-01 11:08:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- ST EURUSD triangle begins to break lower; $1.1085 critical support.

- USDJPY remains rangebound, although NFPs could change that.

- See the DailyFX economic calendar for Thursday, October 1, 2015.

Now that the Friday release of the September US Nonfarm Payrolls report is in sight, traders should be gearing up for a wave of volatility. Before then, however, but for momentary bouts of event risk - today's weekly US claims data at 12:30 GMT and the September US ISM Manufacturing report at 14:00 GMT - it's unlikely that we see significant positions staked out, perhaps putting a damper on price swings once European markets close today.

Of course, now that equity markets are starting to accelerate in their behavior, pairs like the JPY-crosses are more vulnerable to correlation-driven action. Ultimately, the bounce in global equity markets coupled with a strong US labor market report (the US ADP Employment report yesterday showed gains of +200K for the fifth time this year) could help propel USDJPY out of its symmetrical triangle.

Speaking of triangles, the other one we've been watching this week has started to break lower. The short-term EURUSD triangle rejected resistance yesterday, ultimately falling through support, drawing our attention to the September low near $1.1085. Only on a break below this level will a short trade be triggered; the current triangle break only offers a shift in bias for the time being. We would consider a break through the September lows a material shift in price action, which would then bring focus to the rising trendline from the March, April, and August lows near $1.1020.

Between EURUSD and USDJPY, and when considering action in AUDUSD and GBPUSD, the USDOLLAR Index has yet to find meaningful resolution in either direction over the past week-plus. What we have noticed, however, is that during the recent leg up, at least since September 21, the USDOLLAR Index has found its daily 5-EMA as support on subsequent retests.

Accordingly, with the H4 momentum indicators (Slow Stochastics and MACD) having been neutralized from their recent overbought extremes and now starting to turn higher once more, we'll look to the daily 5-EMA as the USDOLLAR Index's "Maginot Line": as long as price is above this level, we're bullish; if price closes below tomorrow after NFPs, our attention will shift to downside in USD-pairs.

See the above video for the levels of importance in the EURUSD and USDJPY triangles, as well as technical considerations in AUDUSD and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: EURUSD, USDJPY Triangles Near Breakouts

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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