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Momentum Gathering Pace in EUR-crosses - Watch EUR/USD 5-EMA

Momentum Gathering Pace in EUR-crosses - Watch EUR/USD 5-EMA

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- EURUSD at fresh yearly lows as daily 5-EMA guides price.

- EURGBP trades below July 2012 low of 0.7750.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Wednesday, January 14, 2015.

Will the US consumption figures derail EURUSD's month-long ride along its daily 5-EMA and the US Dollar more broadly? Given overzealous long positioning in the futures market, it's quite possible that the data today, if skewed to the downside, could be the straw that breaks the camel's back - and precipitates the beginning of a covering move in USD-pairs.

Considered to be a decisive month for the retail sector, the December US Advance Retail Sales report will be closely watched by investors looking to gauge consumer behavior - especially at a time when the veracity of the US growth picture coming into 2015 has come under question.

Previously strong at +0.7% m/m, analysts are expecting sales to decrease by -0.1%. Given December’s high level of consumer confidence, there may be a disconnect amid concern that holiday spending was lackluster. Typically one of the more market moving economic data releases, this may be the most important data release this week

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, and EURGBP.

Read more: Moves in EUR/GBP, EUR/USD Coming; GBP/CAD, NZD/USD Next

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.