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Surprise PMIs Offer EUR/JPY, EUR/USD ST Reversal Opportunities

Surprise PMIs Offer EUR/JPY, EUR/USD ST Reversal Opportunities

2014-07-24 11:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- Best PMI surveys out of Europe in three-months.

- EURJPY, EURUSD see bullish engulfing candles on daily chart.

- Reminder that July forex seasonals in QE era work against USD.

The Euro may be poised for a short-term bounce against its major counterparts over the coming days, as the most important data on the Euro-Zone economic calendar this week roundly beat expectations.

The German, French, and Euro-Zone PMI surveys all registered three-month highs in July, much better than the anticipated further decline as noted by a Bloomberg News survey. Economic data has been particularly weak out of the Euro-Zone in recent weeks, with the Citi Economic Surprise Index residing at -42.3, just above the yearly low set at -43.3 on July 21.

While the fundamental data may be the spark to see the charts turn in the short-term (EURJPY and EURUSD are both working on daily reversal signals), the overarching theme of Euro-Zone weakness, the threat of additional monetary easing from the ECB, and heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe have proved to be significant weights.

Instead, given the broader technical breakdowns that have developed across the EUR-complex, the present setups may be simply setting up for countertrend moves. See the video above for technical outlooks on EURJPY and EURUSD.

Read more: BoE Sings Dovish Tune - How Threatened are GBP Longs?

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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