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Forex Technical Outlook: USD/CHF Rallies to Fresh Monthly Highs

Forex Technical Outlook: USD/CHF Rallies to Fresh Monthly Highs

2018-03-01 18:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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The U.S. Dollar is back on offense with the greenback stronger against all its major counterparts this week. USD/CHF has broken through near-term resistance after reversing off support last week with our outlook weighted to the topside while above the weekly open.

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart

USD/CHF Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: The Swiss Franc has been under considerable pressure (USDCHF higher) since rebounding off the lower parallel of this slope formation extending off the December high (red). The advance has continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined ascending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly lows with the rally surpassing the median-line today in US trade.

The focus remains higher while above highlighted confluence slope support around ~9380 with initial topside objectives eyed at 9513, the 100% extension at 9544 and the 50% retracement at 9613.

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USD/CHF 120min Price Chart

USD/CHF Price Chart - 120min Timeframe

Notes: A closer look at Swissy price action sees the pair breaking above near-term resistance today at 9459- the immediate advance remains viable while above this threshold with near-term bullish invalidation set to the weekly open at 9371.

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Bottom line: Price just broke though near-term uptrend resistance and keeps the focus higher while within this formation. We're likely to get some pullback here as momentum drifts into overbought territory but from a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading weakness while above 9371 targeting the upper parallels. A break below this level would invalidate the long-bias with such a scenario risking a drop toward the lower parallel, currently just below 9300.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy.

USD/CHF IG Client Sentiment

USD/CHF IG Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USDCHF- the ratio stands at +2.57 (72.0% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long since Nov 17th; price has moved 5.0% lower since then
  • Long positions are 8.7% lower than yesterday and 4.8% lower from last week
  • Short positions are11.0% higher than yesterday and 21.3% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDCHF prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDCHF price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in USD/CHF retail positioning are impacting trend- learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant Data Releases

USD/CHF Economic Calendar

Other Setups in Play

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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