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NZD/JPY Breakdown in Focus Ahead of RBNZ, Bearish Sub-81.67

NZD/JPY Breakdown in Focus Ahead of RBNZ, Bearish Sub-81.67

Michael Boutros, Strategist

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NZD/JPY Daily Chart

NZD/JPY Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: NZD/JPY broke below pitchforksupport this week after reversing off key long-term resistance at 83.56/74. Note that this move also clears the July monthly range and keeps the focus weighted to the downside while below 81.67.

The decline is now testing the lower parallel of a near-term descending slope extending off the highs. Watch today’s close- a close below targets the 200-day moving average backed closely by the 50% retracement at 79.77.

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NZD/JPY 240min Chart

NZD/JPY 240min Timeframe

Notes: A closer look at price action highlights near-term support into 80.25 (6/21 swing lows) with interim resistance now eyed at 81.12. Broader bearish invalidation stands at the confluence of the July low, median-line and the 38.2% retracement at 81.63/67.

A break lower from here would likely see accelerated losses for the pair with such a scenario eying subsequent support targets at 79.77 & 79.37 & the 61.8% retracement at 78.79. From a trading standpoint, the immediate risk is for a near-term rebound off these levels but ultimately I’d be looking to fade a rally. Added caution is warranted heading into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision later tonight with the release likely to fuel increased volatility in the Kiwi crosses.

See what sentiment is saying about Kiwi retail positioning - Click here to learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant Data Releases

NZD/JPY Economic Docket

Other Setups in Play:

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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