Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rally- Nearing Resistance

Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rally- Nearing Resistance

To receive Michael’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points

Crude Oil Weekly

Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Crude prices rebounded off confluence trendline support this week at the 42-handle where the median-line of a long-term pitchfork formation dating back to 2015 converges on basic channel support. A more significant region of Fibonacci support is seen lower at 40.52/84 – a region defined by the 1.618% extension and the 50% retracement of the 2016 advance. Both these levels may end up offering a more meaningful low near-term.

Crude Oil Daily

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Technical Outlook:The immediate focus is on this rebound with resistance now eyed at the highlighted median-line confluence around ~45.80/83. Ultimately, the risk remains for a final dip into the structural support confluence at 40.52/84 before a more meaningful recovery.

Crude Oil 240min

Crude Oil 240min Chart

Notes: A closer look at the 240min chart highlights immediate resistance at 45.19 backed by the 45.80/83 zone (near-term bearish invalidation) - both levels of interest for possible near-term exhaustion / short-entries.

Interim support rests at 43.73 with the immediate focus higher while above the weekly open at 43.09. A breach above the upper parallel would suggest a more meaningful lows is in place with such a scenario targeting 47 and the 50-line around ~47.50s. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking for exhaustion into slope resistance if we stretch higher first OR a buy on a pullback for one last push towards the median-line before turning lower.

Crude Oil sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude- the ratio stands at +3.97 (79.9% of traders are long) - bearish reading
  • Retail has been net-long since April 19th; price has moved 16.0% lower since then
  • Long positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 6.2% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 3.1%lower than yesterday but 14.2% higher from last week
  • While broader sentiment continues to point lower, it’s worth noting that positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a mixed gold trading bias. That said, the focus is on this rebound off support with the broader risk still weighted to the downside sub-45.83.

See how shifts in Crude retail positioning are effecting market trends- Click here to learn more about IG Client Sentiment indicators!


Other Setups in Play:

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex contact him at or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.