News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
AUD/USD Rebound Looks to 3Q Australia CPI for Fuel

AUD/USD Rebound Looks to 3Q Australia CPI for Fuel

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUD/USDconstructive above 7590 heading into CPI
  • Key resistance just ahead of 7700
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

AUD/USD Daily

AUD/USD 240min Chart

Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: AUDUSD has continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined ascending median-line formation dating back to the 2015 low with a sliding parallel extending off the 6/16 low now converging on the 61.8% retracement. We’ve been tracking this Aussie setup for some time on SB Trade Desk and heading into tonight’s 3Q Australia CPI release, the focus remains higher while above near-term confluence support at 7594.

Interim resistance stands with the monthly open at 7352 with a breach higher targeting 7678/90. Ultimately a close above the August high-day close at 7699 would be needed to validate a more meaningful breakout targeting 7735 & 7756. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking to fade weakness while above the weekly lows with a breach above 7700 clearing the way for a larger advance. A break lower invalidates the topside bias with such a scenario targeting the 61.8% retracement at 7554 & 7511. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade & more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk.

AUD/USD SSI
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net short AUDUSD- the ratio stands at -1.15 (46% of traders are long)- weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 6.2% lower than yesterday and 3.4% above levels seen last week
  • Short positions are 6.1% higher than yesterday and 17.2% below levels seen last week.
  • Open interest remains lackluster at 9.2% below its monthly average
  • Although the recent dynamic gives a mixed trading bias, the recent strings of highs in AUD/USD have coincided with extremes in retail sentiment, with the key SSI threshold starting at -1.50. That said, the focus remains higher and we’ll be watching for a build in short positioning to suggest that the near-term advance may be nearing completion.

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

AUD/USD Economic Calendar

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES