Talking Points
- USDJPY rally at risk ahead of key U.S. data
- Focus remains higher while above the weekly / monthly open
- Updated targets & invalidation levels
USDJPY 120min
Chart Created Using TradingView
Technical Outlook: We’ve been tracking this rally in USDJPY for over a week on SB Trade Desk with the advance now attempting to clear last week’s high. Note that last month, we highlighted the risk for a major washout in the pair before resuming higher. The pair has been broadly holding within the confines of this near-term ascending slope and the focus remains weighted to the topside while above the lower median-line parallel / 101.84.
Heading into tomorrow’s U.S. ADP employment & ISM data, we’ll be looking to fade weakness into structural support (initial support seen at the highlighted median-line confluence ~102.10) with a breach higher targeting the median-line confluence at 103.55 backed by the key 61.8% retracement at 104.47. A break back below the monthly / weekly open at 101.20 would be needed to put the short-bias back in play. Keep in mind we still have the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls release on Friday. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade & more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk.
- A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net longUSDJPY- the ratio stands at +1.86 (65% of traders are long)
- Yesterday the ratio was 3.35; 77% of open positions were long. Long positions are 14.6% lower than yesterday and 38.7% below levels seen last week.
- Short positions are 54.0% higher than yesterday and 84.4% above levels seen last week.
- Open interest is 1.2% higher than yesterday and 2.9% below its monthly average.
- SSI is coming off extremes not seen since October 2012 (which was the onset of the rally into the 2016n highs) with the pullback in sentiment now at its lowest levels since early September.
- The current dynamic suggests that a broader shift in sentiment may be underway leaving the broader short-bias vulnerable heading into the start of October trade.
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Relevant Data Releases This Week
Other Setups in Play:
- U.S. Dollar Consolidation - Break in Focus Heading into October Trade
- EUR/JPY Responds to Long-term Slope Support into Close of Q3
- AUD/USD Remains Constructive Above 7570- U.S. Durable Goods on Tap
- Webinar: Fed Rhetoric to Keep USD Crosses in Focus Post-FOMC
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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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