Talking Points
Technical Outlook: We’ve been tracking this setup on SB Trade Desk over the past few weeks and heading into key rate decisions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the FOMC, the immediate risk remains lower in USDJPY. The pair has been trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation off the August lows with the pair trading into the 61.8% line. A key Fibonacci support zone rests just lower at 101.36/43 where the 61.8% extension off the decline off the monthly high converges on the 61.8% retracement of the advance off the lows with the broader focus higher while above the lower median-line parallel (blue).
A breach above the highlighted median-line confluence at 102.80/90 would be needed to validate a reversal with such a scenario targeting subsequent objectives at the monthly open at 103.42/54, the 104-handle & 104.47. From a trading standpoint, heading into the releases I would be interested in fading a washout lower in the pair with 101.36/43 & 100.24/30 both areas of interest for exhaustion / long-triggers. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade & more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk.
Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of SuccessfulTraders” series.
- A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net longUSDJPY- the ratio stands at 2.94 (75% of traders are long)- bearish reading
- Long positions are 36.2% above levels seen last week while short positions are 21.4% higher over the same time period.
- Open interest is 0.3% higher than yesterday and 4.0% above its monthly average.
- Retail has been net-long since July 21st (day of the high) – The recent build up in long positions continues to highlight the downside risk heading into the next 24-hours. Note that each time SSI extended into an extreme read of 4.5 or higher, a near-term low was registered in price. As such, we’ll be looking for a continued build in long positioning on a move into support to suggest that a pair may be trying to bottom here.
Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)
Relevant Data Releases This Week
Other Setups in Play:
- Webinar: BoJ, FOMC, RBNZ to Drive Volatility Across Global Markets
- USDCAD Rally at Risk into US CPI- 1.3080 Offers First Line of Defense
- AUD/USD to Face Employment Report- Outlook Constructive Above 0.7380
- GBP/JPY & BoE: Weakness to Be Viewed as Opportunity
- NZD/USD: Bearish Bias Intact as FX Sentiment Narrows Ahead of GDP
Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)
