News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.38% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.27% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.27% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/AkslOognsl
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.47% US 500: 0.32% Wall Street: 0.26% Germany 30: 0.19% FTSE 100: 0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/e9Pahsokz1
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX at 6:00 EST/10:00 GMT for a webinar on becoming a better trader in current markets. Register here: https://t.co/rriVJ9cZOb https://t.co/Mpq9YT6w4g
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/rJznrXkcYz https://t.co/okpXPh6XGX
  • 🇬🇧 Construction PMI (JUL) Actual: 58.7 Expected: 64 Previous: 66.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-05
  • Beijing to quarantine visitors from high-risk areas for 14 days $CNH
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Construction PMI (JUL) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 64 Previous: 66.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-05
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 94.06%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.15%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/H9zwgbPJJF
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB Economic Bulletin due at 08:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-05
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/Rsh9VeB7TU
USD/JPY at Risk for Major Washout as Traders Gear Up For BoJ, FOMC

USD/JPY at Risk for Major Washout as Traders Gear Up For BoJ, FOMC

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • USDJPY at risk into BoJ / FOMC
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

USD/JPY 240min

USDJPY 240min Chart

Technical Outlook: We’ve been tracking this setup on SB Trade Desk over the past few weeks and heading into key rate decisions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the FOMC, the immediate risk remains lower in USDJPY. The pair has been trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation off the August lows with the pair trading into the 61.8% line. A key Fibonacci support zone rests just lower at 101.36/43 where the 61.8% extension off the decline off the monthly high converges on the 61.8% retracement of the advance off the lows with the broader focus higher while above the lower median-line parallel (blue).

A breach above the highlighted median-line confluence at 102.80/90 would be needed to validate a reversal with such a scenario targeting subsequent objectives at the monthly open at 103.42/54, the 104-handle & 104.47. From a trading standpoint, heading into the releases I would be interested in fading a washout lower in the pair with 101.36/43 & 100.24/30 both areas of interest for exhaustion / long-triggers. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade & more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk.

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of SuccessfulTraders” series.

USDJPY Speculative Sentiment Index
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net longUSDJPY- the ratio stands at 2.94 (75% of traders are long)- bearish reading
  • Long positions are 36.2% above levels seen last week while short positions are 21.4% higher over the same time period.
  • Open interest is 0.3% higher than yesterday and 4.0% above its monthly average.
  • Retail has been net-long since July 21st (day of the high) – The recent build up in long positions continues to highlight the downside risk heading into the next 24-hours. Note that each time SSI extended into an extreme read of 4.5 or higher, a near-term low was registered in price. As such, we’ll be looking for a continued build in long positioning on a move into support to suggest that a pair may be trying to bottom here.

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

USD/JPY at Risk for Major Washout as Traders Gear Up For BoJ, FOMC

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES