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  • 🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Final (JUL) Actual: 44.2 Previous: 56.8
  • $AUDNZD likely to attempt closing at a new 2021 low over the remaining 24 hours following the stellar New Zealand jobs report The December 2020 low has been further exposed at 1.0418 since July's #RBNZ rate decision New Zealand bond yields on the rise
  • Strong jobs report lifts $NZD - Money markets pricing in a 93% probability of a 25bps hike at the August meeting (previously 77%) - Over the forecast horizon, the RBNZ had projected (in the May MPS) the unemployment rate to gradually fall to 4.3%
  • #NZDUSD cautiously higher after solid New Zealand jobs report Unemployment rate declined to 4.0% in Q2 from 4.7% prior (vs 4.4% anticipated) Job gains were at 1.7% y/y vs 1.2% expected Data seems to be supporting the case for a less-dovish #RBNZ given the cease to QE recently
  • 🇳🇿 Unemployment Rate (Q2) Actual: 4% Expected: 4.5% Previous: 4.7%
  • 🇳🇿 Employment Change QoQ (Q2) Actual: 1% Expected: 0.7% Previous: 0.6%
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Final (JUL) due at 23:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 56.8
  • The Nasdaq 100 may continue outperforming Dow Jones futures ahead as fears about global growth continue weighing on the 10-year Treasury yield ahead of NFPs. What are the risks? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Unemployment Rate (Q2) due at 22:45 GMT (15min) Expected: 4.5% Previous: 4.7%
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Employment Change QoQ (Q2) due at 22:45 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.7% Previous: 0.6%
AUD/USD to Face Employment Report- Outlook Constructive Above 0.7380

AUD/USD to Face Employment Report- Outlook Constructive Above 0.7380

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUDUSD eyes critical support zone ahead of Australia jobs report
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

AUD/USD 120min

AUD/USD 120min Chart

Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: The Aussie outlook remains largely unchanged from late-last month and heading into tonight’s Australian employment report I’m on the lookout for a possible drop into a critical support zone at 7380-7408. This level is defined by the lower median-line parallel of the near-term descending pitchfork & the 61.8% retracement of the advance off the May low and converge on a longer-term key structural support extending off the yearly low.

From a trading standpoint I would be looking to fade weakness into this critical support zone with interim resistance seen at 7493 backed by the weekly opening at 7538. A breach above the weekly opening-range high at 7568 would be needed to validate the reversal higher in Aussie. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade & more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk.

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of SuccessfulTraders” series.

  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net longAUDUSD- the ratio stands at 1.72 (63% of traders are long)- bearish reading
  • Long positions are 33.2% above levels seen last week while Short positions are 42.4% lower over the same time period.
  • Open interest is 3.5% higher than yesterday and 5.1% below its monthly average.
  • The recent flip to net-long exposure leaves the near-term pullback at risk. Note that SSI peaked at +2.50 in January as AUD/USD marked the 2016-low. As a result, a further build-up of long-positions would further support the notion of a turn in price as the exchange rate approaches key support.

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

AUD/USD to Face Employment Report- Outlook Constructive Above 0.7380

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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