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USD/CAD Approaching Initial Support Targets Ahead of Retail Sales

USD/CAD Approaching Initial Support Targets Ahead of Retail Sales

2016-06-21 18:59:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/CAD approaching initial support- Shorts at risk above yearly open
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

USDCAD 30min

USD/CAD Approaching Initial Support Targets Ahead of Retail Sales

Chart prepared by Michael Boutros

Technical Outlook: We’ve been tacking this USDCAD setup on SB Trade Desk for the past few weeks with the decline now approaching more significant technical support targets. Heading into the release of Canada retail sales tomorrow, look for initial support 1.2749/55 backed by the 2016 low-day close at 1.2722. A break sub-1.2990 would be needed to keep the short-bias in play.

From a trading standpoint, I would be looking for an exhaustion low / long-entries on a move into these targets with topside resistance objectives eyed at 1.2818, 1.2885, 1.2923 and 1.2961/65- a region defined by the 6/16 high-day close & the 61.8% retracement. Keep in mind we also have the second day of the Fed’s semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony before congress which could spur added volatility in the USD crosses. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Deskand take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

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USD/CAD Approaching Initial Support Targets Ahead of Retail Sales
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders are net long AUDUSD- the ratio stands at +1.23(55% of traders are long)-weak bearishreading
  • Yesterday the ratio was +1.18; Long positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 4% below levels seen last week
  • Traders have flipped from net long to net short twice already this month- Extreme of 1.613 registered the day after the low on 6/8.
  • Open interest is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 4.7% below its monthly average. Although SSI metrics put a bearish tone on the pair, the pair is coming into key technical support targets at the monthly & yearly low-day closes – leaves the short-side vulnerable while above these levels

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

USD/CAD Approaching Initial Support Targets Ahead of Retail Sales

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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