News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to sway the US Dollar during the Federal Reserve’s blackout period as the central bank braces for a transitory rise in inflation. Get your weekly $USD forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/JTuP7CLlyi https://t.co/tOvqn3Gdpc
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/s5dn4ZKnku
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACyvdZ https://t.co/6VjW5FEiQW
  • Global stocks bounce back from recent pullback as key resistance levels lie ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/wXSWo1JygD https://t.co/vWVaSEQTXT
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/9kfBu04auM
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5ddzFV https://t.co/8GJ6OQYgnW
  • Bitcoin (BTC) started the day on the front foot on the Twitter news before the latest China crypto ban hammered the market lower. Get your weekly crypto forecast from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/ZKHGXeVhsR https://t.co/QSltMQml6N
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/DSp7f3YuAx
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/HNqHcbL6vk
  • The US Dollar continues to push higher against ASEAN currencies after the FOMC rate decision. This leaves the USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR outlook mostly tilted higher. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zn56iTFBxM https://t.co/FbepD4RaFg
FOMC Game Plan - EUR/USD Constructive Above Monthly Open at 1.1128

FOMC Game Plan - EUR/USD Constructive Above Monthly Open at 1.1128

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD short-bias at risk into the monthly open ahead of FOMC
  • Updated targets & invalidation

EURUSD 30min

FOMC Game Plan - EUR/USD Constructive Above Monthly Open at 1.1128

Chart prepared by Michael Boutros

Technical Outlook: Back on June 1st we noted that the, “short-side (was) vulnerable heading into the ECB interest rate decision and although we cannot rule out another drop into key support, we’re generally looking for a low around these parts for the euro.” Indeed euro rallied in the subsequent days with the pair turning just ahead of the 61.8% retracement a 1.1417.

Euro is trading within the confines of a pitchfork extending off the April & May highs (blue) with the pair pivoting below the median-line in Asia trade last night. The immediate range in focus heading into tomorrow’s key FOMC policy meeting is 1.1165-1.1255.

The bottom end of this range is defined by the confluence of 76.4% retracement of the most recent advance and slope support dating back to the December lows. A break below this mark targets the monthly open at 1.1128 – I would be on the lookout for resistance triggers / long-entries into this region. A break / close below the 200-day moving average (currently ~1.1100) is needed to invalidate the broader December rally.

A breach above the weekly open at 1.1282 shifts the focus back to the topside with such a scenario eyeing subsequent topside objectives at 1.1335, the October high-day reversal-close at 1.1385 & 1.1418. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Deskand take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of SuccessfulTraders” series.

FOMC Game Plan - EUR/USD Constructive Above Monthly Open at 1.1128
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders are net short EURUSD- the ratio stands at -1.10(48% of traders are long)-weak bullishreading
  • Yesterday the ratio was -1.25; Long positions are 3.5% higher than yesterday and 4.1% above levels seen last week
  • Traders have remained short since June 3rd – (EURUSD post NFP rally)
  • Open interest is 3.3% lower than yesterday and 11.2% below its monthly average
  • SSI is coming off recent extremes in bearish sentiment & suggests that the pair remains at risk for a rebound higher from these levels near-term. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking for a post-FOMC low into support to buy.

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

FOMC Game Plan - EUR/USD Constructive Above Monthly Open at 1.1128

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES