We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The European Commission proposed an ambitious recovery fund, containing the key parts of the Franco-German aid package with grants at EUR 500bln and loans at EUR 250bln. Get your $EURUSD update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/LmIaveRajb https://t.co/LWTBVLIDBf
  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/OSUXrN5P3j https://t.co/3nwDel6e28
  • The tension from March continues to subside, allowing for the $USD to slide to fresh two-month-lows. Get your currencies market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/bRSRjUqg6Z https://t.co/Q35YpIZEd2
  • López Obrador hopes #USMCA will help tighten trade relationships between the US and Mexico. Get your currencies market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/bZrUKSCGaS https://t.co/MZ7UoiWWRj
  • The $AUD may suffer as relations between Australia and China deteriorate amid dwindling growth prospects. Euro traders will be closely watching progress in talks about a €500b recovery fund proposal. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/sofO135ElG
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data. Get your ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/ZGFaQQ3Hr2
  • The #Euro is the big driver here for DXY as it is 57% of the index. It is rising now and trying to break above the March 27 high at 11147. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/73SaL5AeXD
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/EIC9YqfTec
  • Anybody else think that casting directors in movies are some of the most underrated people when it comes to giving a film/series credit?
  • No https://t.co/EoBltaP17k
FOMC Game Plan - EUR/USD Constructive Above Monthly Open at 1.1128

FOMC Game Plan - EUR/USD Constructive Above Monthly Open at 1.1128

2016-06-14 19:25:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD short-bias at risk into the monthly open ahead of FOMC
  • Updated targets & invalidation

EURUSD 30min

FOMC Game Plan - EUR/USD Constructive Above Monthly Open at 1.1128

Chart prepared by Michael Boutros

Technical Outlook: Back on June 1st we noted that the, “short-side (was) vulnerable heading into the ECB interest rate decision and although we cannot rule out another drop into key support, we’re generally looking for a low around these parts for the euro.” Indeed euro rallied in the subsequent days with the pair turning just ahead of the 61.8% retracement a 1.1417.

Euro is trading within the confines of a pitchfork extending off the April & May highs (blue) with the pair pivoting below the median-line in Asia trade last night. The immediate range in focus heading into tomorrow’s key FOMC policy meeting is 1.1165-1.1255.

The bottom end of this range is defined by the confluence of 76.4% retracement of the most recent advance and slope support dating back to the December lows. A break below this mark targets the monthly open at 1.1128 – I would be on the lookout for resistance triggers / long-entries into this region. A break / close below the 200-day moving average (currently ~1.1100) is needed to invalidate the broader December rally.

A breach above the weekly open at 1.1282 shifts the focus back to the topside with such a scenario eyeing subsequent topside objectives at 1.1335, the October high-day reversal-close at 1.1385 & 1.1418. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Deskand take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of SuccessfulTraders” series.

FOMC Game Plan - EUR/USD Constructive Above Monthly Open at 1.1128
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders are net short EURUSD- the ratio stands at -1.10(48% of traders are long)-weak bullishreading
  • Yesterday the ratio was -1.25; Long positions are 3.5% higher than yesterday and 4.1% above levels seen last week
  • Traders have remained short since June 3rd – (EURUSD post NFP rally)
  • Open interest is 3.3% lower than yesterday and 11.2% below its monthly average
  • SSI is coming off recent extremes in bearish sentiment & suggests that the pair remains at risk for a rebound higher from these levels near-term. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking for a post-FOMC low into support to buy.

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

FOMC Game Plan - EUR/USD Constructive Above Monthly Open at 1.1128

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.