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GBP/USD Eyes March High on Sticky UK CPI- Bullish Invalidation 1.4174

GBP/USD Eyes March High on Sticky UK CPI- Bullish Invalidation 1.4174

Talking Points

  • GBPUSDat support ahead of UK CPI, Retail Sales
  • Release to threaten immediate long-bias
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

GBPUSD 30min

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: Sterling is testing near-term confluence support at 1.4349/53 where the 23.6% retracement of the advance converges on the 61.8% retracement of the February decline & median-line support extending off the 2016 low. Note that we are coming off median-line resistance and a break below this level would shift the immediate focus lower towards support objectives at 1.4254 & our broader bullish invalidation level at 1.4174 / the lower median-line parallel.

Confluence resistance stands at 1.4490 and a breach above this threshold keeps our long-bias in play targeting the February high-day close at 1.4588, 1.4653/67 & the 2016 open at 1.4731. Should the data show sticky price growth in domestic economy, look for the pound to remain well supported as investors begin further pricing out the likelihood of additional monetary support from the BoE. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

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  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) appears to show a potential shift in retail behavior as the crowd flipped back net-long GBP/USD on March 17th but recent trends suggest that sentiment may continue to come off extremes as the ratio carves a series of lower highs in 2016.
  • After hitting an extreme above +3.0 at the start of the year, the ratio has narrowed substantially since January with last week’s net-short reading marking the first major change in positioning since November 19th.
  • It’s worth noting that open interest is 3.4% lower than yesterday & 5.6% below its monthly average heading into the end of the quarter with a further downward trend in the ratio suggesting that the retail long-bias may be waning.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Relevant Data Releases This Week

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.