We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar may be at risk to losses against some of its #ASEAN counterparts. USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR have recently broken to the downside. Will losses continue? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/0RTlj6maTT https://t.co/UyQ4i0AihI
  • The British Pound technical outlook still seems to favor the downside. GBP/CAD may pressure key rising support from August as GBP/AUD could prolong its downtrend. GBP/CHF may fall. Get your $GBP market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/hBOpDKXmfW https://t.co/AJlT2YKeCu
  • USD/JPY is approaching medium-term uptrend resistance and while the outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable near-term while below confluence resistance. Get your $USDJPY technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/93D7AyhHtG https://t.co/KQcLLrkMP3
  • AUD/USD has had the most impressive show of trend over the past couple of months with the pair gaining almost 1500 pips from the March low. Get your $AUDUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vLz4Rpln3u https://t.co/AOwnJja5V8
  • Has the #Euro been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/AyRiYpb4cN
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/ygwjGNvS61
  • The $USD, Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar will all be at the mercy of political developments in Asia, Europe and North America this week. An avalanche of PMI data will set the backdrop. Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/L8cfAgVx94 https://t.co/THWhPAS6AM
  • The price of #gold plunged 1% immediately after the stunning US jobs report crossed the wires. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/8i0L6YIqjy https://t.co/y9dIXazJf9
  • S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq explode higher with stocks surging in response to shockingly better-than-expected monthly jobs data. Get your #equities market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/nuMVWOzzuC https://t.co/M3nGBjd7kZ
  • The record-breaking NFPs increase behind us and the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday sets the tone for my trading video: 'Dow Soars Above 200-Day Average on NFPs, Will the #Fed Keep the Dollar Sliding' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/06/06/Dow-Soars-Above-200-Day-Average-on-NFPs-Will-the-Fed-Keep-the-Dollar-Sliding.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/kquvec5HVc
USD/CAD Sentiment Hits Extremes Ahead of CPI- 1.2965 Critical Support

USD/CAD Sentiment Hits Extremes Ahead of CPI- 1.2965 Critical Support

2016-03-17 20:07:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • USDCAD at key support at 1.2965/82 ahead of Canadian CPI
  • Release to threaten immediate short-bias
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

USDCAD 30min

USD/CAD Sentiment Hits Extremes Ahead of CPI- 1.2965 Critical Support

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: USDCAD is testing a critical support confluence at 1.2968/81 – this level is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the advance off the May low, the 100% extension of the decline off the 2016 high, a median-line parallel extending off the January 29th high and an embedded channel support extending off the February 4th low. Although we’re likely to see some recovery off this mark, it’s important to keep in mind the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside on account of an objective break of the weekly opening-range lows.

That said, the immediate short-bias is at risk while above this support level heading into Canada’s inflation report tomorrow. Should the core consumer price index highlight sticky price growth, look for continued CAD strength (USDCAD weakness) with a break below support targeting subsequent objectives at 1.2899, the October low-day close at 1.2861 & 1.2831.

Look for a weaker than expected read to offer a reprieve for the greenback with such a scenario eyeing initial topside resistance objectives at 1.3039, the 1.31-handle, last week’s low at 1.3171 & the weekly open at 1.3218. Note that a breach above key resistance at the September high-day close / 61.8% retracement at 1.3420/61 is needed to shift the broader focus back to the topside for the pair. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of SuccessfulTraders” series.

USD/CAD Sentiment Hits Extremes Ahead of CPI- 1.2965 Critical Support
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-long USD/CAD since February 25th with the reading hitting fresh extremes this week as it crossed above the +1.50 mark.
  • Even as USD/CAD comes up against near-term support, the ratio has advanced to +1.82 as long positions jumped 11.1% from the previous week, while short positions narrowed 15.9% during the same period.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Relevant Data Releases This Week

USD/CAD Sentiment Hits Extremes Ahead of CPI- 1.2965 Critical Support

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or ClickHere to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.