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AUDJPY Approaching Monthly Open- Range Break to Determine Scalp Bias

AUDJPY Approaching Monthly Open- Range Break to Determine Scalp Bias

Talking Points


Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDJPY testing key near-term confluence resistance at 86.12/28
  • Subsequent resistance & broader bearish invalidation at 87.31
  • Support 84.61/68 backed by the lower median-line parallel & 81.08
  • Momentum divergence into the lows warns of waning momentum
  • RSI resistance trigger pending- breach would be constructive
  • Key Event Risk Ahead: Japan Trade Balance tomorrow & FOMC Rate Decisionon Thursday

AUDJPY 30min

Notes:AUDJPY has set a clean weekly opening range just below key confluence resistance around the monthly open at 86.13/28. The focus is on a break of this range with a general short-bias favored below the overnight highs with a break sub 84.61/68 (low-day close) targeting support objectives at 84.08 & 83.56.

A breach higher invalidates the immediate short-bias with such a scenario targeting 86.73 backed by key resistance up at 87.26/36. Note that this is a wider-range setup with a quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yielding profit targets of 46-48pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into major event risk on Thursday with the FOMC policy decision and subsequent presser likely to fuel added volatility in risk sensitive pairs.

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Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.