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NZDJPY Monthly Opening Range Trade- Bearish Sub 89.50

NZDJPY Monthly Opening Range Trade- Bearish Sub 89.50

2014-05-07 20:16:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Talking Points

  • NZDJPY awaits monthly opening range break to validate bias
  • Key support 87.61/90
  • Updated scalp targets and invalidation levels

NZDJPY Daily Chart

NZDJPY Monthly Opening Range Trade- Bearish Sub 89.50

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • NZDJPY sets clean May Opening Range 97.90 - 89.28
  • Break to validate monthly bias
  • Support objectives 87.61/90, 86.59/66 & 86.30
  • Key resistance range 89.30/50bearish invalidation
  • Daily RSI reversal at 60- bearish
  • Support & Resistance triggers pending
  • Limited event risk into the close of the week

NZDJPY Scalp Chart

NZDJPY Monthly Opening Range Trade- Bearish Sub 89.50

Notes: The monthly opening range is set just below the 89.28/50 resistance range and our focus is lower on the NZDJPY while below this threshold. Although the initial weekly opening range came in at 88.13, we’ve amended the level to include a Fibonacci confluence zone just lower at 87.93 - 88.01. We will reserve this level as our near-term bullish invalidation with a break below warranting short exposure into subsequent support targets.

Bottom line: looking to sell rallies with RSI conviction while below 89.28 with only a breach above 89.50 invalidating our near-term bias. A daily close sub 87.61 would validate the monthly range break with such a scenario eyeing subsequent targets into key support at 86.60. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

30min

88.41

38.2% Retracement

Bearish Invalidation

30min

88.59/60

50% Retracement / Weekly ORH

Break Target 1

30min

88.89

61.8% Retracement

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

89.27/50

May ORH / 76.4% Retrace / 2014 Close High

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

89.90 – 90.01

138.2% Extension / 2014 High

Break Target 5

Daily

91.04

1.618% Fib Extension

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

87.93 – 88.01

23.6%, 61.8% Retrace(s) / 50% Ext / May ORL

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

87.61/66

61.8% Extension / 78.6% Retrace

Break Target 2

30min

87.16/22

61.8% Retracement / April Low

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

86.59/67

100% Ext / 38.2% Retracements

Break Target 4

Daily

86.30

78.6% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily (20)

70

Profit Targets 16-18pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars next week Monday on DailyFX and Tuesday - Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

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