News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 4 consecutive down weeks for the #SP500, last matched over a year ago #Fed balance sheet continues to gain very cautiously, now at its highest since the middle of June. Still, at slower pace than last week Focus shifts to US fiscal stimulus next week in the House of Reps https://t.co/f8zpSILm86
  • #Gold prices have broken lower and while the broader technical structure is constructive, the risk remains for a deeper correction before resumption. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/7p3jPx6nQd https://t.co/nnCSdt6OV5
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.00% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.15% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.23% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.25% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/O8Qb7OHZza
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.30% Gold: -0.33% Silver: -0.92% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/lEALo4Z1M9
  • The S&P 500 breakdown is testing the first major zone of support and we’re looking for a reaction. Get your S&P500 technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/JrTNmQ5c7g https://t.co/D79T1134P9
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.29%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 65.04%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/lzTHuIgzFQ
  • US Equities Update (Friday Close): $DJI +1.34% $SPX +1.60% $NDX +2.34% $RUT +1.59% $VIX -7.93%
  • Another turbulent week for the Pound with the currency falling 1.6% against the greenback. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/WjU4oYpmf7 https://t.co/hkow2om7I6
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Williams Speech due at 19:10 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.07% Gold: -0.16% Silver: -0.37% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/hbSoMksZVd
Gold Prices Sink as Inflation Expectations Drop and US Dollar Gains

Gold Prices Sink as Inflation Expectations Drop and US Dollar Gains

2020-08-11 06:04:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices drop as upbeat US jobs data shares Fed outlook, inflation bets
  • Crude oil prices on the defensive but familiar trading ranges still holding
  • US PPI figures, EIA energy outlook and API inventories data now in focus

Gold prices tumbled, with the metal on pace to suffer the largest three-day drawdown since late March. The move seems to come in the wake of Friday’s upbeat US jobs data. Faster-than-expected payrolls and wage growth along with a larger drop in the unemployment rate than markets were projecting has cooled bets on Fed stimulus expansion and trimmed inflation bets, undercutting gold’s store-of-value appeal.

June’s JOLTS job openings data seemed to add fuel to that narrative yesterday. It showed a 5.9 million surge in vacancies, extending for a second month the rebound from April’s Covid-inspired plunge to a six-year low below the 5 million threshold. The figures topped analysts’ projections of a modest pullback to 5.3 million, from the 5.4 million recorded in May.

Crude oil prices are likewise on the defensive as the repricing of US monetary policy expectations to a less-dovish setting tarnishes assets anchored to the global business cycle even as it buoys the US Dollar. The latter move amounts to de-facto selling pressure on the range of assets priced in terms of the go-to reserve currency on global financial markets.

US PPI MAY ADD TO GOLD DROP, CRUDE OIL EYEING EIA OUTLOOK AND API DATA

Looking ahead, the backdrop of shifting Fed policy bets might imbue July’s US PPI report with greater market-moving potential than usual. It is expected to show that the wholesale inflation rate ticked cautiously higher. A print north of baseline forecasts may encourage the current realignment, weighing on gold and crude oil alike while the Greenback continues to reclaim lost ground.

Oil may trade especially heavy if the latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook update highlights a likely increase in supply as the OPEC+ output cut scheme is unwound while a deep slump in global economic growth dims demand prospects. API inventory flow figures are also due. They will be weighed against forecasts calling for a 2.8-million-barrel drawdown that traders expect to see in official DOE statistics Wednesday.

Gold Forecast
Gold Forecast
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Get Your Free Gold Forecast
Get My Guide

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices turned lower after producing a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, as expected. From here, a daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1979.73 looks likely to target the 38.2% level at 1920.71 next. Neutralizing selling pressure probably needs a breach and hold above the swing top at 2076.58.

Gold Prices Sink as Inflation Expectations Drop and US Dollar Gains

Gold price chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to hug resistance in the 42.40-43.88 area. Establishing a foothold above this barrier looks likely to set the stage for a test of the $50/bbl figure. Alternatively, a turn lower through support at 38.74 may expose the 34.38-78 zone.

Gold Prices Sink as Inflation Expectations Drop and US Dollar Gains

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

Oil Forecast
Oil Forecast
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Get Your Free Oil Forecast
Get My Guide

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Head APAC Strategist for DailyFX

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES