News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/yLt0ldtMsV
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/ZwwuTzTeac
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/4DGXwA8vqs
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/mAMhWbV6Jy
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/E9ZmJvqO0z
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/fqxw1AoKc1
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/xTGIM2hRBv
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/S8UoHzOwFN https://t.co/qI6UZdggvM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/6wxX6oQurn
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/w009tJEQZn
Crude Oil Prices Uneasy at $20/Barrel, Eyeing Trump and Putin

Crude Oil Prices Uneasy at $20/Barrel, Eyeing Trump and Putin

David Cottle, Analyst

Crude Oil and Gold Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices have edged back up after a dismal quarter
  • Markets may hope that something can be done to address supply glut, but demand remains stricken
  • Gold prices headed up from their two-week lows

Crude oil prices were up but had pared most of their gains in Asia on Wednesday having endured the worst month and calendar quarter on record as March bowed out.

Energy prices rose a little in US hours on Tuesday after it was reported that US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will direct officials to address the stabilization of oil markets. Oil prices remain close to eighteen-year lows after massive falls this year. The demand-destruction promised by the coronavirus has met a supply glut from Russia and Saudi Arabia who’ve engaged in price cutting having failed to agree on output restrictions at the start of March.

However. prices are closing in again on the psychologically important $20/barrel level, and market watchers speculate that prices could actually turn negative as supply facilities fill up if no action is taken. It remains unclear what action the US and Russia plan to take, but whatever it turns out to be can presumably only address the supply side of a market which will face a huge demand hit until the coronavirus is defeated.

Inventory numbers from the Department of Energy are coming up during the US session.

Oil - US Crude BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -7% -13% -10%
Weekly 3% -4% -1%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

There was another glimmer of economic hope from China Wednesday as it was revealed that the private manufacturing sector returned to expansion last month, if only by a whisker. This incredible revival mirrored that of the state sector already seen, but markets seem wary. They may well be right to be so given the likely weak demand for manufactured goods with many economies under effective lockdown.

Gold MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -2% -18% -5%
Weekly -12% 22% -7%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

Gold prices climbed away from two week lows in Asia having notched up a sixth straight quarter of gains in the fist three months of 2020.

The commodity remains vulnerable to the impulse to cash out when losses are seen elsewhere and, given the weak outlook for growth and inflation, many investors seeking haven are more likely to hold the US Dollar instead of gold. However, the manifest uncertainty now stalking markets looks likely to shore up the gold bid.

Virus headlines permitting, markets will look to US employment statistics from the Automated Data Processing company later in the global day, with the Institute for Supply Management’s look at manufacturing also due.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

US Crude Oil, Daily Chart

Crude oil prices continue to display the narrow daily ranges indicative of hesitation, and despite the obvious downside bias the market seems unable to imagine sub-$20 prices without some new fundamental catalyst. This doesn’t mean they won’t be seen of course but, for the moment, the lows of March are providing support just below the market. Should they give way then the low from November 2001 at $16.81 will be in unavoidable focus.

The bulls have yet to seriously threaten even near-term resistance and must be regarded as out of the game until the $27.22 region is retaken.

Gold Technical Analysis

Gold Prices, Daily Chart

Month-end selling pushed gold through its previous range base of $1575/62/ounce, with that point now acting as near-term resistance. Still, falls have not been particularly marked on the break, with March 12’s closing low of $1575.62 now acting as support. Durable falls below that will put the $1500 psychological support point in focus, along with, possibly, the $1451.99 low from March 16.

However, in the current fundamental environment falls to those levels seem very likely to bring the buyers back, possibly in force.

Commodity Trading Resources

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES