We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Gold Price Chart Warns of Trend Reversal Before Fed Rate Decision

Gold Price Chart Warns of Trend Reversal Before Fed Rate Decision

2019-07-29 06:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices struggling for follow-through, chart warns of topping
  • Crude oil prices remain pinned to support near $55/barrel figure
  • Markets eyeing US-China trade talks, Fed policy call for direction

Bellwether commodity prices are idling as markets brace for a week loaded with heavy duty event risk, from the resumption of US-China trade negotiations to a much-anticipated Fed monetary policy announcement. The former will bring USTR Robert Lighthizer to Shanghai for the first face-to-face with Beijing officials since talks broke down in May. The latter is widely expected to bring a rate cut.

It seems too early to hope that Washington and Beijing with secure a decisive breakthrough, but a bit of reassurance in the surrounding commentary from key officials may cheer investors somewhat. The Fed might quickly quash any such optimism. It has been reluctant to pre-commit and so probably will not endorse the markets’ call for 25-50bps in further easing before year-end, souring sentiment.

Traders will probably withhold directional conviction at least until the US central bank has had its say, with lackluster progress one way or another in the interim. Pace-setting S&P 500 futures are pointing to a cautiously risk-off start to the week. That might translate into slightly weaker crude oil prices. Meanwhile, gold may have to balance a supportive downtick in bond yields with a slightly stronger US Dollar.

Get the latest crude oil and gold forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are stalling but a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern coupled with negative RSI divergence continue to hint a top is taking shape. A daily close below rising trend support opens the door for a test of the July 1 low at 1381.91. Alternatively, a breach of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1447.90 targets the 50% level at 1468.29.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices remain locked in a narrow range above support at 54.84. A break downward confirmed on a daily closing basis initially exposes the 49.41-50.60 area. Alternatively, a rebound above resistance at 58.19 sets the stage for a retest of the 60.04-84 zone.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.