News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • #2020election polls continue to show Democratic nominee Joe Biden maintaining a strong lead #Trump Supreme Court nomination may throw a wrench into bipartisan stimulus talks #AUDUSD is trading at former resistance-turned-support. What happens if it breaks?
  • USD/MXN pushes higher as a long-awaited correction in the US Dollar gets underway. Get your #currencies update from @HathornSabin here:
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
  • Join analyst @DavidJSong at 6:30 PM ET/10:30 PM GMT for your weekly update on key news trading events. Register here:
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EDT on DailyFX!
  • EUR/USD fell sharply last week and there are few signs yet that the selling is over. However, a bounce is likely before the decline resumes. Get your #currencies update from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The week ahead has many systemic issues that take control of the markets, but scheduled data is heavily skewed to the Dollar. Here is my video for the week ahead:
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • The AB=CD pattern is simple once you know how to spot it and draw the proper Fibonacci retracements. Make your trading strategy as simple as ABCD here:
  • BoE’s Tenreyro says evidence on negative rates are “encouraging” Meanwhile, STOXX Europe Banks Index resides at all time lows
Gold Prices Struggle Despite Dovish Fed, US Retail Sales Data Due

Gold Prices Struggle Despite Dovish Fed, US Retail Sales Data Due

2019-07-16 05:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Gold prices struggle for momentum despite dovish Fed guidance
  • Soft US retail sales data may boost haven-seeking USD demand
  • Crude oil prices eyeing API data after largest drop in two weeks

Gold prices are struggling to gain traction despite what seems like a compelling catalyst: unmistakably dovish guidance form the Federal Reserve. That suggests the markets may have already priced in as much policy easing as can be reasonably expected before year-end.

This makes for a curious backdrop as the spotlight turns to June’s US retail sales report. A slowdown is expected to yield the weakest growth in four months at 0.2 percent. US data flow has tended to undershoot forecasts in recent months, warning that a still-weaker result may be in the cards.

If the markets have exhausted their capacity to be cheered by hopes for easier Fed policy, a soft result may register as risk aversion. That might bring on a gold-supportive slide in bond yields, but this might be countered (if not overwhelmed) by haven-seeking capital flows buoying the US Dollar.

Another downbeat outing from Fed Chair Jerome Powell might compound this dynamic. He is scheduled to speak at the Bank of France and seems likely to revisit some of the US central bank’s most prominent pain points, with particular emphasis on trade wars and the global slowdown they’ve helped engineer.


Crude oil prices posted the largest daily drop in two weeks. Selling pressure began to emerge late last week with the downgrade of tropical storm Barry to a “depression” and an ominous IEA report warning of oversupply despite OPEC-driven efforts at destocking.

Yesterday, reports that US energy infrastructure shuttered ahead of Barry would soon return online reinforced the former narrative. Meanwhile, EIA drilling productivity data forecasting a pickup in new-well and overall output in August seemed to bolster the latter.

The spotlight now turns to API inventory flow statistics. They will be weighed up against expectations calling for a 3.7-million-barrel outflow projected to be reported in official EIA figures Wednesday. A smaller draw or a surprise build might weigh on prices, while a larger one might furnish fuel for a bounce.

Get the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter!


Gold prices remain locked in a choppy range below a resistance region centered around the August 2013 high at 1433.85. Breaking upward looks like it may set the stage for a test above the $1500/oz figure. On the downside, any would-be reversal needs to overcome a dense block extending out through 1346.75.

Gold price chart - daily


Crude oil prices pulled back from resistance in the 60.04-84 area but left the outlines of a last week’s would-be upside breakout intact for now. Trend line resistance-turned-support reinforces back-to-back downside barriers running down through 54.84, with a break below that probably needed to call a reversal.

Crude oil price chart - daily


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.