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Gold Prices May Keep Falling as ISM Data Boosts the US Dollar

Gold Prices May Keep Falling as ISM Data Boosts the US Dollar

2019-03-05 07:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices decline for a fourth day as dour market mood boosts the US Dollar
  • Crude oil price rise fades with risk appetite despite US-China trade deal hopes
  • Services ISM may offer the Greenback a further lift, API inventories data due

Gold prices fell for a fourth day as the US Dollar continued to recover, undermining the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. Tellingly, the metal declined even as shares and yields tracked lower in risk-off trade, underscoring its suspect credentials as “haven asset” despite stubbornly entrenched claims to the contrary.

Crude oil prices managed a corrective upswing following Friday’s outsized drop, but gains fizzled as risk aversion struck. That sent the sentiment-sensitive commodity lower alongside share prices, translating into a modest positive close within a familiar range by day’s end.

IS US-CHINA TRADE DEAL PROGRESS A LIABILITY FOR SENTIMENT?

The markets’ sour mood is notable in that it marks capitulation after an upbeat start amid hopes for a breakthrough in US-China trade talks. This marks a second week where trade war de-escalation was met with a lukewarm response. Investors shrugged as President Trump postponed a tariff hike last week.

This might imply that the markets have already priced in a deal that puts to bed immediate tensions between Washington and Beijing. Within that context, news-flow supporting speculative bets on such an outcome may now be acting as a trigger for profit-taking.

GOLD MAY FALL AS ISM SURVEY BUOYS US DOLLAR, OIL EYES API DATA

Looking ahead, February’s service-sector ISM survey is in focus on the economic data docket. The pace of non-manufacturing activity growth is expected to have quickened after dropping to a six-month low in the prior month.

US economic data outcomes have broadly tended to underperform relative to baseline forecasts over the past month. If last week’s price action patterns are sustained, such a result may offer haven-based support to the Greenback and weigh on gold prices by extension.

API oil inventory data is also on tap. The outcome will be sized up against forecasts calling for a 1.2-million-barrel build to be revealed in official EIA figures on Wednesday. A smaller rise or a surprise drawdown may boost crude oil prices while a larger inflow might send them downward.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices continue to drift lower having formed a top below $1350/oz (as expected). Sellers now target support at 1276.50, with a daily close below that setting the stage for a test of the 1260.80-63.76 area. Alternatively, a reversal below support-turned-resistance at 1307.32 opens the door for an underside challenge of a broken rising trend line set from mid-November, now at 1325.66.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

A bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern and negative RSI divergence continue to hint that crude oil prices are topping. Confirmation of reversal on a daily close below support in the 55.37-75 area exposes the 50.15-51.33 zone. Alternatively, a move back above resistance in the 57.96-59.05 region paves the way for a retest of trend line support-turned-resistance from February 2016, now at 62.14.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

  • See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices
  • Having trouble with your strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make
  • Join a Trading Q&A webinar to answer your commodity market questions

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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