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Gold Prices May Fall as Risk Aversion, Fed Rethink Buoy US Dollar

Gold Prices May Fall as Risk Aversion, Fed Rethink Buoy US Dollar

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices drop for second day, forming bearish chart pattern
  • Crude oil prices fall as China coal imports ban spooks traders
  • German data, Fed-speak, US-China trade talks in focus ahead

Gold prices fell for a second day, building on the move triggered after the release minutes from January’s FOMC meeting. Trades seemingly repositioned for a less-dovish Fed than previously expected, sending bond yields and the US Dollar upward. That undercut the appeal of anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets epitomized by the yellow metal.

Meanwhile, cycle-sensitive crude oil prices fell alongside stocks following reports that China banned Australian coal imports at the Dalian shipping hub, triggering broad-based risk aversion. Weekly EIA inventory flow data was something of a mixed bag and didn’t offer clear direction cues. Crude storage grew more than expected but gasoline and distillate stocks saw larger outflows than analysts projected.

GERMAN DATA, FED-SPEAK, US-CHINA TRADE TALKS IN FOCUS

Looking ahead, signs of slowing growth in German economic data may stoke global slowdown fears and weigh on sentiment. Revised fourth-quarter GDP readings and the IFO business confidence survey are on tap. Ominous comments from ECB President Mario Draghi might compound the downbeat mood. That might continue to weigh on risk appetite.

On balance, a broadly risk-off lean probably spells trouble for crude oil prices. To the extent that such a move inspires haven-seeking support for the US Dollar, it might likewise punish gold. A raft of incoming comments from a broad range of Fed officials might amplify the metal’s troubles if they echo the FOMC minutes’ tone, suggesting the central has merely paused rate hikes rather than abandoned them.

Follow-through on any sentiment-based move will probably need support in news flow from US-China trade negotiations however. Traders are seemingly hopeful following reports that senior officials are drafting six comprehensive memorandums of understanding (MOUs) outlining the way forward on key points of friction. US President Trump meets Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at 2:30pm ET (19:30 GMT).

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices turned lower as expected, with the formation of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern now hinting that a top is taking shape. Confirmation of reversal requires breaking past a dense support zone running through 1249.10. A daily close below that exposes initially exposes 1276.50. Alternatively, a rebound back above the February 20 high at 1346.75 exposes pivotal resistance in the 1357.50-66.06 area.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices turned back from resistance in the 57.96-59.05 area, snapping a seven-day winning streak. Initial support is at 55.75, the February 4 high, with a reversal back below that putting the 50.15-51.33 zone in focus once again. Alternatively, A daily close above 59.05 exposes trend line support-turned-resistance set from February 2016, now at 61.81.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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