News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.85%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 66.63%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/JyR3xc98Wr
  • Commodities Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.96% Silver: 0.61% Gold: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/yc6zHLMQjl
  • Forex Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.02% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.15% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.29% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/buujEMQ7YX
  • Indices Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.77% Germany 30: 0.69% France 40: 0.69% Wall Street: -0.11% US 500: -0.53% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Dy6BFqiMZa
  • Dollar May Rise as Stimulus Boosts Yields, Pound Eyes Bailey Comments - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2021/03/08/Dollar-May-Rise-as-Stimulus-Boosts-Yields-Pound-Eyes-Bailey-Comments.html
  • What are some monetary policies that could affect Gold this quarter? Get your Gold free forecast here: https://t.co/bTXkGN1CIM #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/E8nwHmBwE6
  • Missed the weekly outlook webinar today? See the recording here: https://t.co/7vz7cXUZfJ #Dollar #stimulus #stocks #gold
  • 🇨🇭 Unemployment Rate (FEB) Actual: 3.6% Previous: 3.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-08
  • USD/HKD edged higher as stock market melted down.. Capital outflow? https://t.co/isRXrgVIlv
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 Unemployment Rate (FEB) due at 06:45 GMT (15min) Previous: 3.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-08
Crude Oil Prices May Bounce After Plunge on EIA Inventory Data

Crude Oil Prices May Bounce After Plunge on EIA Inventory Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices drop to a 13-month low as oversupply fears reemerge
  • Gold prices fall as firming Fed view boosts yields despite risk aversion
  • EIA inventory data echoing API forecast might offer crude oil a lifeline

Crude oil prices swooned as global oversupply fears returned. The drop followed a report from S&P Global Platts saying China’s crude inventories quadrupled in October. It added that a further build is likely in November as demand wanes. Doubts about the potency of further OPEC supply cuts were already swirling, with the large restocking by the world’s second-largest oil consumer seemingly pushing prices over the edge.

The plunge spilled over into broader risk aversion, with energy-linked names leading Wall Street to its largest one-day drop in a month. Rebuilding Fed rate hike expectations seemed to compound the selloff. In fact, Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar rose despite the risk-off mood as the 2019 tightening path implied in Fed Funds futures steepened. Not surprisingly, anti-fiat gold prices fell against this backdrop.

CRUDE OIL PRICES MAY BOUNCE ON EIA INVENTORY DATA

Looking ahead, crude oil prices may find some room to recover if EIA inventory flow statistics echo a forecast from API projecting a narrow 1.55 million barrel outflow. A similar outcome in official figures would contrast sharply with forecasts calling for a 2.87 million barrel build. As for gold prices, the near-term outlook is somewhat clouded.

S&P 500 futures are pointing higher, hinting at a risk-on mood that might be expected to buoy yields and weigh on the yellow metal. Yesterday’s performance warns against assuming such things however. If worries about an aggressive Fed were at least partly responsible for that selloff, a pre-holiday correction may bring the reverse – an uptick alongside share prices. In any case, substantive trend development seems unlikely.

See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices snapped a five-day winning streak, recoiling form a test of trend line resistance set from late October. A reversal below support in the 1211.05-14.30 area exposes rising trend support, now right at the $1200/oz figure. Alternatively, a push above resistance – now at 1228.11 – opens the door for a challenge of the 1260.80-66.44 zone.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices crashed through support in the 54.48-55.21 area to challenge the next downside barrier in the 52.34-83 zone next. A daily close below that exposes the October 2017 low at 49.16. Alternatively, a move back above 55.21 paves the way for a retest of 58.11, the February 9 low.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES