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Gold Prices Look to ECB Rate Decision for New Direction Cues

Gold Prices Look to ECB Rate Decision for New Direction Cues

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Gold prices continued to push higher, reveling in another brutal down day for the US Dollar. The benchmark currency’s losses have proven to be a boon for the yellow metal, a standby anti-fiat asset. This time around, existing selling pressure driven by monetary policy convergence bets was amplified by worrying comments from White House officials, including President Donald Trump.

The focus now turns to the ECB monetary policy announcement. The markets seem taken with the idea that rosy global growth dynamics will see major central banks follow the Fed’s hawkish lead and begin to pull back on stimulus. The BOC and the BOJ have firmly pushed back against this narrative so far this month. Gold may counter-intuitively fall if Mario Draghi and company follow suit as the greenback steadies.

Crude oil prices rose after EIA inventory data showed stockpiles shed 1.07 million barrels last week. While the outcome was close to consensus forecasts, it proved to be far more supportive than a surprise build projected by API. Supportive comments from Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih offered a further boost, saying OPEC-led supply cuts will see a “gradual, smooth exit” in 2019.

Looking ahead, comments from the World Economic Forum on-going in Davos, Switzerland may continue to shape price action. A panel discussion on the future of Saudi Arabia’s economy and another on climate change are unlikely to pass without high-profile speakers opining on the supply/demand balance for fossil fuels. That may inspire volatility, particularly absent other top-tier scheduled event risk.

See our free guide to learn what are the long-term forces driving crude oil prices!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are testing resistance at 1365.68, the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion, with a daily close above that exposing the 50% level at 1378.43. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 1344.74-49.90 area (January 15 high, 23.6% Fib) opens the door for a retest of resistance-turned-support at 1325.96 (January 4 high).

Gold Prices Look to ECB Rate Decision for New Direction Cues

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices shot higher to challengethe 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 66.21. A break above that confirmed on a daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 67.24. Alternatively, a move back below the 23.6% Fibat 64.93 paves the way to probe the 14.6% expansion at 64.15 once again.

Gold Prices Look to ECB Rate Decision for New Direction Cues

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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