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Crude Oil Prices at Risk if EIA Inventory Data Echoes API Estimate

Crude Oil Prices at Risk if EIA Inventory Data Echoes API Estimate

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Crude oil prices enjoyed a recovery in risk appetite yesterday, with the cycle-sensitive commodity tracking stock prices upward in North American trade. The WTI benchmark trimmed some of its gains late into the day after API said US crude inventories added 4.76 million barrels last week. Gasoline storage reportedly swelled by 4.12 million barrels over the same period.

The spotlight now turns to official EIA inventory flow statistics, where economists are calling for a 1 million barrel outflow from raw-material stocks and a modest 1.6 million barrel gain on the gasoline front. Needless to say, that is a far rosier scenario than what API projected. If realized results print closer to that private-sector estimate, prices may turn downward.

Gold prices rose as the US Dollar continued to sink, offering a de-facto lift to the standby anti-fiat asset. Capital has been pouring out of the greenback as investors position for upbeat global growth dynamics to push more central banks to follow the Fed’s hawkish lead. That makes non-USD alternatives appear relatively cheap, and thereby attractive.

Looking ahead, US stock index futures are pointing higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, hinting that a broadly upbeat mood will see this ‘reach for yield’ behavior continue. That may translate into continued gains for the yellow metal. In fact, prices marched tellingly higher alongside contracts tracking the S&P 500 equity benchmark in early European trade.

Find out here what retail traders’ buy/sell decisionshint about the gold price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices have recovered to challenge resistance in the 1344.74-49.90 area (January 15 high, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion). A daily close above that exposes the 38.2% level at 1365.68. Alternatively, a turn below resistance-turned-support at 1325.96 (January 4 high) targets the January 10 low at 1308.38. Negative RSI divergence warns that upside momentum may be ebbing.

Crude Oil Prices at Risk if EIA Inventory Data Echoes API Estimate

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are back to test January’s swing high after finding support above the $62/bbl figure. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 64.93 exposes the 38.2% level at 66.21. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib retracement at 62.80 sees the next layer of support at 61.52.

Crude Oil Prices at Risk if EIA Inventory Data Echoes API Estimate

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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