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Gold Prices Look to Fed-Speak, Crude Oil Eyes Kurdish Referendum

Gold Prices Look to Fed-Speak, Crude Oil Eyes Kurdish Referendum

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Gold prices are digesting losses having slumped following the FOMCpolicy announcement. Still, the market-implied probability of another rate hike before year-end is now at just 63.2 percent, leaving ample room for greater certitude to be priced in at the expense of the yellow metal.

A lull in top-tier data flow will see this translate into a focus on Fed-speak in the day ahead. Comments from New York, Chicago and Minneapolis branch presidents Dudley, Evans and Kashkari are due. The latter is familiarly dovish so remarks from the former two ought to have the most market-moving potential.

Crude oil prices are struggling to find fresh momentum after last week’s breakout. Today’s Kurdish independence referendum may break the standstill. A vote in favor of a Kurdish state in oil-rich northern Iraq, opposed by Baghdad as well as Iran and Turkey, may boost prices amid supply disruption fears.

What are the fundamental forces driving long-term crude oil price trends? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices eye support at 1281.26, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, after sellers secured a foothold below the $1300/oz figure. A daily close below that exposes the 61.8% level at 1263.27. Alternatively, a move back above the 38.2% Fib at 1299.25 sees the next upside barrier at 1321.51, the 23.6% retracement.

Gold Prices Look to Fed-Speak, Crude Oil Eyes Kurdish Referendum

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are back in digestion mode after rising to a four-month high. From here, a daily close above resistance marked by the May 25 top at 51.97 exposes peaks in the 53.74-54.48 area. Alternatively, a move back below 50.40 paves the way for a retest of the September 6 high at 49.49.

Gold Prices Look to Fed-Speak, Crude Oil Eyes Kurdish Referendum

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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